The Denver Broncos are in a precarious position.
Despite last night's spark en route to a 27-20 victory over the San Diego Chargers, Peyton Manning appears to be done. He replaced Brock Osweiler following five Denver turnovers and led the Broncos to 20 points over five drives. But was his 5-of-9, 69-yard performance enough to earn him a job in the post-season and beyond? From an outsider's perspective, it appears doubtful.
Manning will turn 40 in March and his arm strength isn't getting any better. Regardless of how the playoffs go, don't expect Broncos general manager John Elway to enter the 2016 season with Manning as his starting quarterback.
By process of elimination, that leaves Osweiler as the most likely replacement. But the fourth-year QB is scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency this offseason, a dicey situation for Denver. If you haven't noticed, starting quarterbacks, even crummy ones, aren't cheap. Keeping Osweiler will likely cost the Broncos upwards of $10 million per season. So, should they do it?
Osweiler has been competent during the six games Manning missed due to injury. On the season, he is completing 61.8 percent of his passes and has thrown for 1,967 yards with 10 touchdowns against six interceptions. His passer rating of 86.4 ranks 25th in the NFL.
Of his three turnovers last night, you could make the case that two of them were not directly his fault. Though the move lookes good in retrospect, Osweiler's benching seemed to come at an odd time with Denver moving the ball well against San Diego.
Overall, Denver has averaged 20.5 points per game in his six starts and 25 points per game under Manning.
No, Osweiler isn't an instant success story like Andrew Luck or Russell Wilson. But as we've seen with several quarterbacks this year - Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins - it takes time to find your groove. Judging Osweiler based on six measly starts is like walking out of a movie after the first 10 minutes. It's too small of a sample size to make an accurate evaluation.
Critics of Osweiler seem to forget that Denver doesn't have many other options. Is the team going to go out and sign Sam Bradford, Ryan Fitzpatrick or Matt Shaub in free agency? No, and it's not as if any of those guys are going to provide significantly better value in return. Osweiler has experience and familiarity within the organization going for him on top of his unknown upside. The Fitzpatricks of the world are known commodities; at least Osweiler's ceiling is still up for debate. And it's not as if he has played himself out of a job this year.
I realize that the Broncos are in Super Bowl mode for the foreseeable future. They have the most dominant defense in the NFL this year and an offense that is just a few pieces away from excellence. A part-time starter isn't the ideal choice to lead a team like this, but he could grow into the role over the course of a full season. He could get better.
Am I being optimistic? Absolutely. But there's a reason Elway drafted Osweiler in the first place. He may never be an MVP candidate, but he seems to be Denver's best option for 2016.
