As meters of snow pile up in ski areas across the West, skiers in line for lifts have been offering the same praise across the Northwest: thank you, El Nino! El Nino climates do not, however, characteristically behave this way.
A research team at the Weather Channel compared climate data of El Nino, La Nina, and neutral weather patterns over a 30-year period. According to the study, El Nino climates result in "below-average snowfall in the northern tier of states and a snowier-than-average southern tier."
While certain weather events, such as snowstorms in Texas, appear to follow this trend, it does not explain the huge dumps ski areas have seen in the northern Rockies, the Pacific North West, and British Columbia.
In September of 2015, Joel Gratz, a meteorologist at OpenSnow.com, compiled a slew of data from NOAA, the National Weather Service, the Japan Agency for Marine Earth Science and Technology, and other agencies. Comparing this data, he matched the Weather Channel's study, predicting high precipitation and low temperatures in the south, and the inverse in the north.
He added an important caveat: "in much of the western US and Canada, about 10% of the storms produce half of the winter's snowfall ... the absence or addition of just one or two storms can change the outcome of the winter," according to OpenSnow.com.
While many feared that the El Nino climate would result in yet another poor year of snowfall for ski areas, the opposite has occurred in the North American West. "A strong El Nino is in place and should exert a strong influence over our weather this winter," said deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, Mike Halpert, "While temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Nino are favored, El Nino is not the only player. Cold-air outbreaks and snowstorms will likely occur at times this winter. However, the frequency, number and intensity of these events cannot be predicted on a seasonal timescale."
This season has not been consistent with past El Nino climates. In some regions, the differences have not merely returned conditions back to normal; they have swung to the opposite extreme. While the American Northwest has been lucky enough to receive massive snowfalls, other areas of the world have seen massive flooding, uncharacteristic snow, and tornados. It just goes to show that as the Earth's climate changes, past models provide less accurate predictions for what lays in store.
