This year's fantasy football season has been over for a few weeks now and owners are still trying to grasp their failures or bask in their victories. The 2015 season was a wonky one for sure. You had a better chance of convincing me during the preseason of Donald Trump's Oval Office odds than Devonta Freeman's No. 1 RB status or Doug Martin's resurgence. Yet here we are.
It's important to take these lessons with us throughout the offseason as we contemplate our strategies for next year's draft. After all, it's never too early to start thinking about next year. Here are a few suggestions to get you started.
1. Stop holding on to running backs
Bad habits are hard to break in both real life and in fantasy football. Over the last 10 years or so, there has been mounting evidence that suggests that running backs are no longer an efficient investment in the first round of most fantasy drafts. Total carries, average touches per game and overall rushing totals are down across the board as teams focus more on the passing game and running back by committee approaches.
Unlike most seasons, there are only a few running backs that are slam-dunk first-round picks for 2016. A healthy Le'Veon Bell should return to his havoc wreaking PPR ways and a mild improvement under center for the Los Angeles Rams could launch Todd Gurley into the stratosphere. Other than that, question marks run amok.
Adrian Peterson will be 31 and coming off his sixth career season with at least 300 carries. Freeman's production stalled in the second half of the season and it's unlikely he can sustain 2015's touchdown rate. Martin obviously enjoyed an impressive bounce back season, but can we really count on him to stay healthy and productive again?
Sure-fire running backs are few and far between which means...
2. Wide receivers dominate
You could make a strong case that Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Dez Bryant and Rob Gronkowski (a TE, I know) are all safer picks than Peterson, Freeman and Martin.
Brown (1,834) and Jones (1,871) just posted top five all-time yardage seasons for wide receivers. Brown averaged a whopping 12.2 targets per game while Jones posted 12.8. You just don't find that type of consistent workload very often. Peterson and Martin received 13 or fewer carries in a game three times this season with Freeman posting five such efforts. Somehow, the passing game has become more reliable than the ground game.
ODB is a freak of nature that is able to make plays that other receivers simply can't. With offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo being promoted to head coach, expect that trend to continue with his usage only rising. If Houston can improve even slightly under center, Hopkins should continue as a WR1. The same goes for Bryant, assuming good health for both he and Tony Romo.
Gronk is Gronk. Need I say more?
3. Wait on QBs
Cam Newton was drafted on average in the ninth round of ESPN leagues this past season. Now, he's fantasy's leading scorer. Carson Palmer and Philip Rivers were taken after the tenth round in most drafts. They finished 2015 as the No. 5 and No. 12 fantasy QBs, respectively. Long story short: the quarterback position is deep, especially in fantasy football.
When it comes to drafting, the most important thing to remember is value. How much return on investment did Peyton Manning owners get this year for their pick in the first four rounds? Wouldn't you have rather had a Matthew Stafford or even Ryan Fitzpatrick for cheap?
Given the development of this year's second-year QBs (Blake Bortles, Derek Carr), the emergence of young veterans (Kirk Cousins) and the promise of 2015 real life first-rounders (Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota), there should be plenty of QB options next year. Don't feel pressured to reach on a signal-caller in the early rounds. There is enough talent to go around.
