Free-agent outfielder Justin Upton reportedly signed a six-year, $132.75 million contract with the Detroit Tigers on Monday night. Rumors suggest this will further shift the landscape for Yoenis Cespedes, but how?
There are two schools of thought in the aftermath of the Upton signing: Cespedes will have to settle for a short-term deal, perhaps with the New York Mets, who are reportedly open to the idea, because the market for his services has further narrowed. Or, Cespedes just gained more momentum to land a long-term deal as the outfield market is continuing to materialize.
Here's some insight supporting the former belief:
"The Mets privately insist their indifference toward re-signing Cespedes to anything but a short-term deal isn't about money, but rather their concerns about his motivation if he gets an Upton-like contract," writes John Harper of the New York Daily News.
"There has been some indication that other teams feel the same way."
"'I just don't think anyone wants to give Cespedes a five- or six-year deal,' an American League executive texted on Monday night."
And here's some supporting the latter:
"The Mets might have interest in Cespedes on a team-friendly short-term deal, but Cespedes' camp likely will be even less interested in something like that after the Upton terms have come down," writes ESPN's Buster Olney.
"The six-year, $132.75 million deal Justin Upton just agreed to with the Detroit Tigers could be viewed as a blueprint for what Yoenis Cespedes may get, since they're both power-hitting left fielders in their prime who have some warts," writes Jorge L. Ortiz of USA Today Sports.
"Certainly, Cespedes and his representatives are thinking in those terms."
I would imagine if Cespedes were to ultimately decide on a short-term deal, he would undoubtedly sign with the Mets due to their success last season, among other factors. After all, manager Terry Collins said Cespedes would like to return to New York.
However, this just doesn't seem like a likely scenario.
Many were wondering earlier in the offseason if Upton was going to settle for a one-year deal since there was limited reported interest in the outfielder since the season ended. He also had draft-pick compensation tied to him. Well, that talk was put to rest when Upton became the third-highest paid position player this offseason on Monday.
Despite the reported concern of Cespedes "losing motivation" if he were to sign a long-term deal, I really doubt that's going to be a notable topic of discussion at the negotiating table since there is no concrete evidence of him slacking off in the future once he finally gets paid. Cespedes is a more versatile outfielder than Upton, has a superior arm/power/speed combo, and has better offensive numbers over the past four seasons. Take a look for yourself:
Cespedes from 2012-2015
.271 batting average
334 runs scored
106 home runs
367 RBI
.805 OPS
15.8 WAR
Upton from 2012-2015
.266 batting average
363 runs scored
99 home runs
320 RBI
.804 OPS
13.0 WAR
Sure, Upton is two years younger than Cespedes, but that's really not anything to be worried about. Alex Gordon signed a four-year deal at age 32, and pitchers who are 30 or older have cashed in at an unprecedented rate this offseason (David Price, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann, Wei-Yin Chen, Jeff Samardzija, Scott Kazmir, Ian Kennedy, J.A. Happ and others).
Remember when Tigers GM Al Avila said adding another enormous long-term contract to their payroll would create some issues? Remember he shot down reports of the team looking at high-profile outfielders?
The fact of that matter is, baseball is a multi-billion dollar industry, as we noted yesterday. A lot of teams can spend freely, regardless of what they say in the media. There are still some clubs out there such as the Los Angeles Angels, Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals and others who might be taking a look at Cespedes and possess sufficient funds to land him.
Don't let teams fool you when they say they won't be spending this offseason because we've heard that rhetoric all too much in recent years.
