When MLB teams exchanged salary figures with their arbitration-eligible players last Friday, a few cases made headlines. The Chicago Cubs and Jake Arrieta were one such instance. Arrieta's representation filed for a $13 million salary and the Cubs countered with $7.5 million.
While the $5.5 million gap is enormous, rumors suggest Arrieta and the Cubs will settle and prevent the case from going before an arbitration panel.
"Standing just feet away from each other this past weekend at the fan convention, Theo Epstein and Jake Arrieta said all the right things about getting a deal done and it's very likely they will before an arbiter hears the case," writes Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com.
Arrieta is fresh off winning the NL Cy Young thanks to his best MLB season to date. He went 22-6 with a 1.77 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 236 strikeouts in 33 starts (229 innings). He finished sixth in the NL MVP voting as well after earning just $3.63 million in 2015. He's in his second year of arbitration eligibility and is looking for a respectable raise, and rightfully so.
To be clear, the Cubs were not lowballing Arrieta with their $7.5 million counter. Instead, they were likely under the impression Scott Boras (Arrieta's agent) was going to reach in his request, so it was imperative Chicago balanced out the expected larger figure.
"The filing numbers aren't offers, they're filing numbers used to either create a hearing ... or more likely a settlement," Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said, via Rogers. "These numbers provide room for a settlement."
The drastic gap implies the two sides will settle, because there is no way Arrieta is going to receive a paltry $3.87 million raise (based on the Cubs figure) or a ridiculous $9.37 million raise (based on his figure). Settling makes the most sense because one party will lose dearly if the case goes to a panel.
As Rogers noted, David Price also won the Cy Young award before his second year of arbitration and the left-hander's salary went from $4.35 million in 2012 to $10.11 million in 2013 - a record for a pitcher. Price's case will provide a good example as the two sides hope to settle, but the Cubs will perhaps be at a bit of a disadvantage since Arrieta's Cy Young campaign was much better than Price's (20-5, 2.56 ERA, 205 Ks).
MLBTradeRumors.com used their arbitration model to predict Arrieta will make $10.4 million in his second year of arbitration eligibility. That's about the midway point ($10.25 million) for the figures submitted by both sides.
However, be on the lookout for a possible long-term contract for Arrieta, as previous rumors have suggested the team was interested in getting a deal done with the right-hander.
