The New York Yankees are well aware the health of their starting rotation could make or break them. General manager Brian Cashman went out and acquired Aroldis Chapman from the Cincinnati Reds to help take some pressure of the ailing unit, but will that be enough?
It's an awesome start, but we must also remember fellow relievers Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances had heavy workloads in 2016. The three relievers will likely combine for the best 7-8-9 inning combo, but that cannot be relied upon every night. The relievers will need rest and the starters will need to go deep into games at times. That's just the way it is.
On the team's official website, the rotation consists of Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, CC Sabathia, Luis Severino, Ivan Nova and Bryan Mitchell. Two of those names are likely to get bumped to the bullpen, but let's take a look at all of those players and determine the best way to employ the most effective cast of starters.
Tanaka
The Japanese right-hander was tremendous in his 2014 rookie campaign (13-5, 2.77 ERA), but a partial UCL tear derailed his Rookie of the Year chances. He elected to rehab the injury rather than undergo Tommy John surgery, and while that may have been a prudent decision, we have no idea if it was at this point.
The mystery surrounding Tanaka's right elbow has caused a bit of a distraction in New York, to say the least. The right-hander hit the disabled list early in 2015 after being diagnosed with a forearm strain and wrist tendinitis, which may have been (although we don't really know) attributed to his UCL injury. Many have referred to Tanaka's arm as a "ticking time bomb," meaning he could go down at any moment since it's hard to tell how healthy the ligament is or if it has returned to full strength.
Tanaka made just 24 starts in 2015 after two DL stints, and while he's a great asset to the team, his health cannot be relied upon.
Pineda
The 27-year-old joins Tanaka as another talented pitcher with enormous health concerns. Since coming over from the Seattle Mariners in a trade back in 2012, Pineda has made just 40 starts for the Yankees (he missed all of 2012 and 2013 due to shoulder issues and made only 13 starts in 2014).
He again missed a lot of time in 2015 with a flexor forearm strain, which limited him to 27 starts. In his first full (ish) season in the Bronx, the right-hander had mixed results and posted a 4.37 ERA. He's never made more than 28 starts in a season since debuting in 2011, and again, the Yankees cannot rely on him to be healthy and/or perform at a high level even though he's a talented pitcher.
Sabathia
The left-hander hasn't been effective since 2012 and it's not expected to get any better with his degenerative knee issues. He'll make $25 million in 2016 before the Yankees likely buyout his vesting option for 2017 to avoid paying him another $25 million, but they're going to have to make the most of this situation because there's no way to avoid it heading into the new season.
Sabathia entered alcohol rehab at the end of 2015. That will be another thing the team will have to keep an eye on. He did manage to make 29 starts, but his 4.73 ERA didn't get the Yankees anywhere. Neither has his 4.81 ERA over the past three seasons (69 starts).
Eovaldi
The young right-hander was up-and-down for New York in his debut season with the team, but he managed to settle down in late June. He finished 14-3 with a 4.20 ERA before he was shut down for the season with elbow inflammation.
The health of his right elbow probably won't be too clear until he starts pitching on a regular basis again, which is yet another issue the Yankees don't need. Eovaldi, 25, also has yet to establish his presence in the MLB. He's 29-38 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 106 career starts, but many feel his talent and abilities don't reflect what he's accomplished thus far.
Throw in that pressure with another elbow injury, and that's four starters with significant concerns surrounding their 2016 status.
Severino
He's the saving grace of the group. The youngster made his MLB debut in 2015 and posted a 2.89 ERA in 11 starts with the Yankees, leading many to believe he could become the team's future ace. Cashman refused to include him in any trade packages, which shows how much the right-hander is valued in the organization.
If he stays healthy, he can probably be the most effective starter on the team in 2016. He clearly belongs in the big leagues after maintaining a 2.30 ERA in 67 career minor league games.
Nova
The right-hander has been the subject of some trade rumors, but I'm not really sure who would trade for a pitcher who has made just 41 starts over the past three seasons. He underwent Tommy John surgery after four starts in 2014 and returned last season only to post a 5.07 ERA in 17 outings. He clearly wasn't himself, but there's a chance he rebounds in his second year removed from the elbow procedure.
I think New York would be better off taking that gamble rather than trading him for nothing. Or, if they want to trade him at some point, at least let him build up his value before the trade deadline.
Mitchell
It's unknown how the Yanks plan to use Mitchell, but he's been regarded as one of the most frustrating young players in the organization. The Yankees feel he has the ability to be a successful pitcher, but the right-hander has yet to harness his true capabilities, as seen with his 5.31 ERA in 23 career MLB games.
His inconsistency throughout his minor-league career could be a precursor to his MLB career, but the club certainly hopes not. He'll probably have a chance to win a spot in the rotation in spring training, but the team may already have their five starters lined up and/or could view Mitchell more effective as a reliever.
HNGN's Diagnosis for the Yankees' starting pitching: go with a six-man rotation
Why not? The Yankees don't have a Cy Young-caliber starter in the rotation they'd be depriving of an outing every fifth day in this scenario. Instead, it'd be a prudent idea to give the injury-plagued players more days off and further acclimate the younger guys to the big-league rotation (in the event one needs to step up if a serious injury to another pitcher were to occur).
The idea was considered at the beginning of last season when the team had 30 games in 31 days, but it wasn't implemented. It was employed for a short while at the end of the year, but then Tanaka and Eovaldi hit the DL and the plan was soiled.
So why not open the year with the six-man rotation and avoid future injury troubles, maximize the potential of every starter and/or build up the trade value for those that could potentially be dealt?
After all, would you rather have 26-28 starts of the most effective pitching possible, or, as evidenced from last season, 26-28 inconsistent roller coaster outings from players like Tanaka and Pineda because of injuries?
Players like Tanaka, Pineda, Eovaldi and Sabathia could benefit from this scenario from a health standpoint. Youngsters such as Severino and Mitchell would have pressure taken off them since they won't be relied upon so heavily and thus further ease their way into a full-time role at the MLB level. And a pitcher such as Nova would have the opportunity to re-establish his value in the event he's traded at the non-wavier deadline or when hits free agency after 2016.
And I know you probably think Severino is worthy of starting every five days. And he probably is. But it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to keep his workload at bay. He's tossed only 320 professional innings, so pushing him in the 175-200 range for a full season might not be best for his health/longevity.
It's also clear the Yanks are not moving Sabathia to the bullpen because, well, I'm not sure, but it's probably since he's owed $25 million and it's not a good look to have a bad $25 million reliever in the bullpen.
Cashman did an excellent job of taking pressure off the rotation in acquiring Chapman (despite the controversy surrounding the trade). Relievers Branden Pinder, Chasen Shreve and Jacob Lindgren could provide another solid supporting trio as well.
But starting pitching will still be the key. In this day and age it is the key. That means New York needs to maximize the effectiveness of all of their starters, and a six-man rotation might be the best way to do that.
