Chicago Cubs starter Jake Arrieta blew away the MLB last year with his historic second half of the season. He logged a 0.75 ERA in 15 starts and that late surge helped him capture the NL Cy Young award. However, his workload in 2015 could limit him in 2016.
Rumors indicate the Cubs are going to keep an eye on Arrieta's situation for the upcoming season. The right-hander notched career-highs in starts (33) and innings pitched (229) by a wide margin and that could potentially contribute to future fatigue in his next full campaign.
Check out Arrieta's side-by-side stats from his 2014 and 2015 seasons and see the drastic differences for yourself. (Note: at the time, his 2014 stats also marked career-highs in every major category.)
2014: 10-5 with a 2.53 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 167 strikeouts in 25 starts (156 2/3 innings)
2015: 22-6 with a 1.77 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 236 strikeouts in 33 starts (229 innings)
*He had never eclipsed the 120-inning mark until 2014
Here's some more perspective on the matter: Arrieta has logged 795-1/3 innings pitched in his six MLB seasons, and 385-2/3 of them came in the past two years, which is almost half of the output for his career. He witnessed a 72-1/3 inning jump from 2014-2015, which was the biggest gap in his career.
On last week's Baseball Tonight Podcast with Buster Olney, various topics regarding the Cubs were discussed, including Arrieta's status for the 2016 season. Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com joined the show to provide some insight.
Olney asked: "Will Jake Arrieta physically be able to hold up after pitching so much last year?"
Rogers responded: "I think it's a good question. If you go back to 2014, Arrieta missed the first month of that season because of some shoulder issues he experienced during the winter. He hasn't had that full, big 200-inning season until this past year, but he is in great physical condition ... I think the Cubs will do everything they can to back off of him starting in spring training. They weren't able to do that last year because they didn't have a deep starting staff, but this year they added a couple of guys [Adam Warren that might be able to fill in, whether that be in April or September. I think [the team] is aware how hard he went last year, and they're going to address it."
One can only wonder if Arrieta's agent, Scott Boras, will have any say on the matter. He was outspoken regarding Matt Harvey's innings limitations last season, but that was because the right-hander was coming off Tommy John surgery. Still, Arrieta is a potentially lucrative client and Boras is going to do all he can to protect his client's health.
Arrieta is under club control through the 2017 season, so his huge payday isn't very far away. In the meantime, his health for the foreseeable future must be preserved in order to him to land a big contract, so that could mean a skipped start here and there in 2016 given the Cubs newfound pitching depth.
