Super Bowl 50 is still about a week and a half away, but there's plenty to think about in terms of betting on this game. The Carolina Panthers come into the matchup with tremendous momentum, but the Denver Broncos have the best defense in the NFL as well as the most prolific offensive mind in the game - Peyton Manning.
The Panthers opened as the favorite at -4, and according to Bovada Sportsbook and Oddsshark.com, they're now favored at -6. Carolina just steamrolled through the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals - arguably the next best teams in the NFC - and will enter the Super Bowl with a 17-1 record.
On the other hand, Denver defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots en route to their second Super Bowl appearance in three years. Manning is back under center after a short stint with Brock Osweiler as the team's starting QB, but Manning's arm strength and accuracy still remain a significant issue. However, C.J. Anderson has come alive in recent weeks and the defense has surrendered over 20 points just twice in the past nine games.
So how do we bet this game and come out on top? Let's look at the numbers first:
Carolina Panthers | Spread: -6 (-110) | Money line: -210 | Over/Under: 45 |
Denver Broncos | Spread: +6 (-110) | Money line: +175 | Over/Under: 45 |
I don't think the spread will stay this high (I can see it going back down to -4 or even -3), so if you think Denver has a good shot at winning this game, I would take the +6 spread as well as the +175 money line to maximize your chances of a good payout. For those of you that don't know, the money line option means you are betting on that team to win outright with no spread. In this instance, if you put $100 on the Broncos and they win the Super Bowl, you will pocket $175 (just multiply your wager by 1.75 and that will be the payout). Conversely, if you want the Panthers without the spread, you'll need to risk $210 to win $100. If you take the spread, the -110 means you need to bet $110 to win $100, $55 to win $50, $27.50 to win $25, and so on and so forth. The -110 line is how the bookmakers earn their money because you're essentially paying an extra fee to take the points in the event the team you choose loses. (Check out this betting calculator if you need more help.)
If you have a good feeling about Carolina, I would wait this out a little bit. Sure, it seems realistic that the Panthers could win by a touchdown and cover the spread, but a six-point cushion for the underdog is enormous, especially for the biggest game of the season. The last Super Bowl spread that was this large came in 2009 when the Steelers closed as seven-point favorites against the Cardinals (the year before that the Patriots were 12-point favorites against the Giants). Both the Cardinals and Giants covered those spreads, with the Giants winning outright.
This will be Peyton Manning's first Super Bowl as an underdog. The Broncos were 2.5-point favorites against the Seahawks two seasons ago and were demolished 43-8 at MetLife Stadium. Back during his days with the Indianapolis Colts, the five-time MVP closed as a five-point favorite against the New Orleans Saints in Super Bowl XLIV and a seven-point favorite against the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XLI. Manning and the Colts won and covered against the Bears, but they lost 31-17 against the Saints.
That's just another thing to keep in mind when deciding on your bets.
As for the over/under, I strongly believe you need to take a stance on what team you think will win before making a decision on this bet. The o/u is at 45 right now and I doubt that's going to move much between now and game day.
As we've seen with Carolina this year, the over has covered 13 times out of their 18 matchups to date (they covered the spread eight of those times and won 12 of those games outright), according to Oddsshark.
So if you feel the Panthers will win this game, take the over.
Out of Denver's 18 games this season, the over has covered only six times and the Broncos won four of those games (the over also pushed once). The Broncos have covered the spread and the over in the same game six times this season (and pushed once), but not once when the o/u was 45 or above. They only hit the over twice when the number was that high and it was only when they lost (Week 9 @ Colts and Week 15 @ Steelers). In the games they've won outright, the under has covered nine times and pushed once.
Based on these numbers, take the under if you have a hunch Denver can take down Carolina.
This now brings us in the world of parlays. This is when you bet on two or more instances to occur simultaneously, such as Panthers -6 and the over or Broncos +6 and the under. The payout varies depending if you take the spread or the money line. If you take the spread and the o/u, the payout is typically 2.5 times the wager, so you'll make around $50 on a $20 bet. However, those numbers drastically change if you take the money line. The Broncos money line paired with the o/u will be a much higher payout than the Panthers money line paired with the o/u. (Check out this parlay calculator if you want to see what the various payouts are.)
As I just elaborated upon, I think the Panthers should be paired with the over and the Broncos should be paired with the under, regardless if you want to take the spread or not. I actually think the smartest bets would be Panthers money line and the over or Broncos money line and the under, so you can use that as a benchmark when pondering parlays.
At this point, the only bet I would make is Denver +6 because that's a high spread. The Broncos have been underdogs only five times this season, covering four times and pushing once.
If the line and o/u happen to change fairly drastically within the next week, we will run Part II of this "How To" with more advice on how to place your bets. If not, Part II will primarily focus on prop bets and our prediction for the game.
