The Boston Red Sox got themselves a bona-fide No. 1 starter when they signed David Price to a $217 million contract this offseason. The move took a lot of pressure off the others in the team's rotation, but which one will step up and serve as the No. 2 behind Price?
Boston also has talented pitchers Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, Clay Buchholz and Joe Kelly, but none of them has yet to establish themselves as a top of the rotation starter.
"There is a far longer list of credible candidates for the role of No. 2 starter this year than there were for the title of the Sox' No. 1 last year, but there is a fascinating separation of the ceilings and floors of the team's pitchers that suggests that the rotation could be anywhere from one of the best in the majors to a middle-of-the-pack ensemble," writes Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. "As such, the group of starters contribute to a sense of the 2016 Red Sox as a team that offers fascinating uncertainty as spring training nears."
Let's go through each starter and evaluate their performances to get a better idea of who might be the Red Sox's No. 2 arm.
Porcello
The right-hander signed a four-year, $82.5 million contract last offseason after he was acquired from the Detroit Tigers. He had yet to throw a pitch for the Red Sox at the time of the deal and then he endured the worst season of his career in 2015.
The 27-year-old went 9-15 with a 4.92 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 149 strikeouts in 28 starts (172 innings). That campaign followed up his career-best 2014 season (15-13, 3.43 ERA in 32 games). In his six years as a Tiger, Porcello went 76-63 with a 4.30 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 655 strikeouts in 184 games (180 starts), totaling 1,073-1/3 innings.
However, his second half of the 2015 season could be a sign of good things to come. After going 5-9 with a 5.90 ERA during the first half (17 starts), the veteran rebounded and finished 3.53 ERA in 11 starts, despite a 4-6 record. He also saw a big improvement in his strikeout-to-walk ratio.
"Porcello isn't going to be an ace, and if you watched him last year, you know this," writes Tim Britton of the Worcester Telegram. "But of all those rotation pieces behind Price, Porcello may have the best chance of stepping into the No. 2 role, and it's because of what he showed down the stretch of 2015, after he returned from a month on the disabled list."
He was successful in Detroit, so there's no reason to think he can't be with the Red Sox.
Rodriguez
The rookie made his MLB debut in 2015 after coming over in a trade with the Baltimore Orioles in July of 2014. Rodriguez, 22, went 10-6 with a 3.85 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 98 strikeouts in 21 starts (121-1/3 innings) in his debut season and was a bright spot despite the team's overall disastrous year. He allowed one or no runs in 12 of his outings.
The left-hander is signed through the 2021 season, so he has plenty of time to establish himself in Boston, but could he capitalize on the ambiguous status of the rotation beyond Price heading into 2016?
"In the Red Sox' view, the question isn't if Rodriguez will become a perennial All-Star. It's when," writes Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald. "They signed David Price to be their No. 1 starter, but they never have swayed from their original expectations for Rodriguez. He's to be an ace, and nothing less, if the Red Sox are to carve out a bounce-back season with World Series aspirations."
Buchholz
If the right-hander had been able to stay healthy and consistent, he'd be the No. 2 by default. However, Buchholz, 31, has been unable to log back-to-back healthy or consistent campaigns throughout his nine-year MLB career. Check out his ERA from 2010-2015 as well as the number of starts he's made each year:
Year | ERA | Number Of Starts |
2010 | 2.33 | 28 |
2011 | 3.48 | 14 |
2012 | 4.56 | 29 |
2013 | 1.74 | 16 |
2014 | 5.34 | 28 |
2015 | 3.26 | 18 |
Last year Buchholz was shut down in early July after suffering a flexor strain in his right elbow. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski opted to exercise the right-hander's $13 million team option after he pitched a number of healthy bullpen sessions after the season.
The problem with Buchholz is that it'd be hard for the Red Sox to commit to him as their No. 2 due to his volatility. If he's healthy, there's no question he possesses the talent to pitch behind Price, but there's no telling if he'll be able to hold up.
"The grim injury history is why it's risky to rely on Buchholz as a rotation stalwart (he'll likely open the season as the No. 2 or No. 3 starter)," writes Dayn Perry of CBS Sports.
"In the end, Buchholz just once in his career -- 2010, when he finished sixth in the AL Cy Young balloting -- has Buchholz pitched a level befitting a No. 2 or No. 3 starter and worked a qualifying number of innings."
Kelly
Believe it or not, Kelly is a dark horse candidate here. The 27-year-old finished with a 10-6 record with a 4.82 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 110 strikeouts in 25 starts in 2015, but, like Porcello, his second half provided hope for 2016.
The right-hander went 2-5 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in his first 14 starts, but then finished the season 8-1 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 11 starts. That included a streak of 10 starts in which he didn't record a loss.
However, Kelly will need to maintain that consistency to merely keep his job in the rotation. It could be a boom-or-bust scenario for him.
"Right now he looks like the favorite to be the No. 5 starter in a Red Sox rotation improved by the signing of David Price, although Henry Owens, Brian Johnson and Steven Wright could all make their case for that spot by the end of spring training," writes Nick Canelas of Baseball Prospectus. "If Kelly's 2015 performance is any indication, the Red Sox may have one of the most complete rotations in baseball. That's because Kelly's numbers prove he's good enough to start at the back end of an elite rotation."
This will be an entertaining competition to watch during spring training, so be sure to keep your tabs on the Red Sox before Opening Day.
