Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Bernie Sanders by eight points in a new Iowa poll released by the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling on Friday, just days before the Feb. 1 caucuses.
Forty-eight percent of Iowans likely to participate in the Democratic caucuses told PPP that they plan to vote for Clinton, while 40 percent named Sanders. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley came in with seven percent.
It's a slight improvement for Clinton from the same poll conducted earlier this month, which showed the former secretary of state with 46 percent to Sanders' 40 percent.
"We've found Hillary Clinton leading in Iowa by 6-8 points on our last two polls," said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling. "Bernie Sanders will likely make up some ground from Martin O'Malley voters moving toward him. To pull the upset he will need large numbers of voters who aren't currently registered Democrats to show up on his behalf Monday night."
Most Iowa precincts require a candidate to garner at least 15 percent support. Supporters of candidates who fail to meet that threshold must cast their ballot for another candidate, according to The Washington Times. That could be good news for Sanders, because 57 percent of O'Malley supporters said that they preferred Sanders as a second choice, compared to 27 percent who favored Clinton.
Sanders' success also depends heavily on independent voters showing up and changing their affiliation to Democrat in order to caucus for him. Sixty-two percent of independents said that they support Sanders, while only 23 percent backed Clinton. PPP estimates that independents will comprise about 17 percent of the electorate for Monday's caucuses. Among registered Democrats, Clinton had a 17-point lead over Sanders, 53 percent to 36 percent.
Clinton's supporters were more committed to voting for her, with 88 percent saying they will definitely do so, compared to 74 percent of Sanders' supporters who said the same.
Sanders led in terms of favorability, 74 percent favorable to 14 percent unfavorable. Clinton had a 69 percent favorable to 22 percent unfavorable split, and O'Malley had a 53 percent to 18 percent split.
The survey was conducted from Jan. 26-27 among 851 likely Democratic caucus-goers and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
RealClearPolitics' average of the past five polls in Iowa puts Clinton out front by 2.5 percent. In New Hampshire, Sanders has a 14 percent lead.
