For all but two teams in the NFL, the offseason is officially here.
And with the offseason comes sweeping optimism from every fan base. It's the only time at which every single team has the opportunity to improve on equal footing. That's a highly appealing notion to fans of a worst-to-first league. Since we've already covered How To Crush Free Agency, today we will focus on the true lifeblood of successful NFL franchises: the draft.
Look around you - which teams in the NFL are consistently the most successful? Over the last decade-plus, I'd say the New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay Packers, Baltimore Ravens and a few other teams stand out in that regard. And what do all of these teams do? Draft well.
The draft isn't necessarily about accruing the largest collection of talent, though that helps. Really, the draft is about getting good value in return for your picks.
The Packers famously took Aaron Rodgers at No. 24 in the first-round of the 2005 draft. The Seattle Seahawks nabbed Russell Wilson in the third-round. In each instance, both players outperformed the expected returns based on where they were selected. The same can be said for a few rookies this past year, with Washington Redskins fourth-rounder Jamison Crowder, Arizona Cardinals third-rounder David Johnson and Buffalo Bills second-rounder Ronald Darby all exceeding expectations. Getting good value in return for a pick is how you build a foundation for your roster.
Another way to crush the NFL draft is to take advantage of the odds. Bill Belichick does this better than anyone. Since 2010, no NFL decision maker has made more draft day trades than he has. Normally, these moves involved trading down and acquiring more picks. It's hard to hit a home run in the draft, but your odds increase when you have more at-bats than anyone else. From 2009-2014, Bellichick averaged a whopping 11 picks per draft. These selections included offensive standout/favorite jock Rob Gronkowski (Round 2), and defensive starters Chandler Jones (Round 1), Don't'a Hightower (Round 1) and Jamie Collins (Round 2).
Perhaps the most important approach that these teams all share is that they rarely reach for positional need. Keeping with the Pats, everyone knew they needed help in the secondary after losing both starting cornerbacks to free agency last offseason. Instead, Belichick didn't take a CB until the seventh-round and the Pats defense still finished ninth in yards-per-game (339.4) and tenth in points (19.7). Drafting based on need instead of talent and value is a sure-fire way to stock your roster with under achievers.
Are these all fool-proof plans that guarantee a successful draft? No, the draft is and always will be an inexact science. But these strategies seem to be working for other teams and it can't hurt to keep them in mind when you're on the clock.
