Only one starter for the New York Mets pitched in 30 regular season games in 2015. That was Jacob deGrom, who was still skipped a few times to receive extra rest. The club limited nearly all of their starters, most notably Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard, in some manner.
General manager Sandy Alderson says the team will take similar measures in 2016, which is bound to spur rumors in regards to what the plan will be.
"Those are factors you have to keep in mind the next season," Alderson told John Harper of the New York Daily News. "We won't have innings limits but we'll be a little protective. We may do some things to keep them healthy and strong with the possibility they'll be going late into October again."
Skipping a start here and there proved to be effective for New York last season. Harvey was preserved for the team's deep postseason run and deGrom was able to rest down the stretch and refuel for his overall tremendous playoff debut.
However, concerns exist for every Mets' starter heading into 2016. Let's go down the list and evaluate each one.
Harvey
In his first season back from Tommy John surgery, the right-hander threw a total of 216 innings, which is 37-2/3 innings more than his previous career-high set in 2013. There are certainly concerns of overuse for his recently repaired elbow, so the Mets will likely take similar measures to limit him in 2016 as they did in 2015.
Although Alderson said there won't be an innings limit for anyone, Harvey will more than likely sit out a few starts, especially if the team is again in the postseason discussion late in the year.
While FanGraphs projects Harvey to make 32 starts and hurl 203 innings, Baseball-Reference.com predicts he'll throw only 155 innings (it did not specify the number of starts). One can only wonder if that's factoring in injuries or the team's strategy to keep him fresh in subsequent seasons.
deGrom
The right-hander also underwent Tommy John surgery in his career, but that was years ago. Over the past two seasons he's made 52 starts and tossed a total of 331-1/3 innings. However, his 216 IP in 2015 (including the playoffs) was the most he's thrown in a single season.
He exceeded his previous high by 37 innings and he's approaching the vaunted Tommy John shelf life of six years. He'll probably be skipped a few times as well, just like last year, and the team will need to keep an eye on his arm strength and pitch quality as the season progresses. At the end of last season he was leaving a lot of pitches up in the zone, which perhaps indicated he wasn't at full strength.
Syndergaard
He's never undergone Tommy John surgery, but the young right-hander shattered his career-high in innings pitched by 65 innings, which, as Harper notes, is significantly higher than the average 30 extra innings that teams try to limit young pitchers to.
Syndergaard is another flamethrower, and at age 23, the Mets will likely put forth their best efforts to utilize the right-hander as much as they can while also giving him ample time to rest. Next year will be his first full MLB season (he started 2015 in the minors), which will be an interesting narrative to keep an eye on.
Matz
The 24-year-old left-hander pitched 140 innings as a minor leaguer in 2014, which still remains his career-high. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2010 and has thrown just 380-2/3 innings since. He was limited to 105 innings in 2015 due to injuries, so that set him back in terms of building up his stamina and arm strength.
In nine MLB starts, Matz finished 4-1 with a 2.68 ERA (including three postseason outings), which proves he certainly capable of being an everyday starter at the highest level, but the Mets control him through the 2021 season and probably want to preserve him for years to come.
Wheeler
Wheeler is already going to be limited as he's not expected to return until June due to his recovery from Tommy John surgery he underwent last March. The right-hander said he pitched through elbow pain in 2014, which ultimately led to a damaged UCL in his right elbow.
He's made 49 MLB starts in two seasons, going 18-16 with a 3.50 ERA in those contests. The 25-year-old is the final piece to the Mets' starting rotation puzzle, as they'll likely have all five young starters on the bump for the first time ever in 2016.
Alderson would like to keep it that way until the unit is possibly broken up when their free agent years approach, so look for the team to rest Wheeler as much as possible leading up to his 2016 debut and then perhaps skip him a few times after that depending on how his health holds up.
