Last year the AL East saw some history. The Toronto Blue Jays won the division for the first time since 1993 after shocking the MLB with aggressive acquisitions at the non-waiver trade deadline. However, 2016 will provide a different storyline.
This is the first of our series of predictions for the 2016 MLB season. We will analyze each division and come up with a winner, records for each club, and also determine if that division will have a team make the postseason as a wild card team.
American League East Winner
Boston Red Sox (95-67)
This is the popular pick, but I'm not sure there's much of an argument against it. While the rest of the division arguably regressed or marginally improved between the end of last season and now, the Red Sox have gotten a lot stronger in just a few moves. They brought in president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski who signed David Price and Chris Young and traded for relievers Craig Kimbrel and Carson Smith.
That pretty much solved the team's deficiencies, which is a scary thought for the other division opponents.
Boston finished fourth in runs scored last year and managed to stay in the top half of the league in DEF (defense), according to FanGraphs. Their offense figures to come back just as strong - if not better - and the defense is bound to improve a bit being that Hanley Ramirex won't be pulling any shenanigans in left field in 2016 (he'll be at first base, but if he fails to perform the team has a few capable defenders ready to fill in).
Their main issue last season was with the pitching staff. It ranked 25th in ERA (4.31) and lacked an ace as well as a strong back end cast in the bullpen. What's also a bit promising is that Rick Porcello and Joe Kelly got back on their feet during the second half, which could be a sign of good things to come heading into 2016. If Clay Buchholz can stay healthy and Eduardo Rodriguez can take a step forward, this could go from one of the worst starting rotations to one of the best.
I do think Price will be at a disadvantage in Fenway Park, but even if he doesn't have a Cy Young-caliber campaign, his mere presence is going to take pressure off the others starters, which will help them perform more consistently and effectively.
Pair that with a returning offensive cast that consists of David Ortiz (heading into his final MLB season), a healthy Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Pablo Sandoval, Mookie Betts, a seemingly revived Jackie Bradley Jr. and impressive rookie Blake Swihart, this could very well be the most dangerous team in all of baseball.
Oh yeah, and I'm sure the team is going to be fired up with manager John Farrell back in the dugout following his successful battle with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.
2nd Place/Wild Card Team
New York Yankees (88-74)
Say what you want about the non-flashy Bronx Bombers, but they won 87 games last year and only got better this offseason (aside from their pitching staff woes, which we'll get to). General manager Brian Cashman didn't spend a nickel in free agency and instead acquired Starlin Castro, Aroldis Chapman and Aaron Hicks (among other smaller deals) on the trade market to bolster the MLB roster.
For the position players, Castro gives them a huge upgrade at second base over whatever horrific platoon unit was employed last year while Hicks provides greater versatility and depth in the outfield, which is bound to help with the oft-injured Carlos Beltran and Jacoby Ellsbury.
Incumbent shortstop Didi Gregorius erased his slow start to 2015 and batted .294/.345/.417 with 30 runs scored, 5 home runs and 37 RBI during the second half. He figures to get more comfortable after taking over for Derek Jeter and should contribute to the league's No. 2-ranked offense much earlier this time around.
Yes, the starting rotation will be a notable make-or-break storyline for the Yanks, but the unit was pretty much in shambles last season and manager Joe Girardi steered the team to a wild-card berth after relinquishing their chances at a division run late in the year. This time they'll have a full season of Luis Severino, who is expected to take a step forward and really impact the continuity of the rotation.
Masahiro Tanaka is progressing toward a return after his offseason elbow procedure while Michael Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi have had ample time to rest themselves after enduring injury trouble in 2015. Ivan Nova is hungry to rebound after a poor campaign and maybe youngster Bryan Mitchell finally takes that next step the team has been hoping for.
Even minor improvements will help. The Yankees, despite all of the injuries and inconsistency, maintained a 4.05 ERA as a team, which was good for 17th in the MLB.
And if they can hold the lead through the sixth inning, the game is essentially over as their opponent will probably have to face the daunting trio of Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Chapman.
The health/production of Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira will remain a question and the loss of Greg Bird won't help, but if A-Rod and Tex can do half of what they did last year, the Yanks will be fine.
3rd Place
Tampa Bay Rays (83-79)
Not to knock the Rays, but they (in my opinion) had one of the worst rosters in all of baseball last year and still managed to finish 80-82 under first-year skipper Kevin Cash.
Well, the club now figures to have a much healthier rotation with Matt Moore and Drew Smyly entering 2016 with no ailments. Outfielders Steven Souza (missed 52 games in 2015) and Desmond Jennings (played in only 28 games) will also be ready to contribute after injury-plagued campaigns.
Not only that, but the Rays also made a number of acquisitions that are expected to supplements their deficiencies from 2015. Steve Pearce will improve their hitting against left-handed pitching; Corey Dickerson will give them depth in the outfield and another formidable left-handed hitting option; and Brad Miller will more than likely provide as a defensive upgrade over Asdrubal Cabrera, who accumulated a -7 DRS last year.
Tampa ranked 11th in ERA (3.74) and 25th in runs scored, but both of those categories should see a boost in production.
And if Alex Cobb can get back into action sooner rather than later (he's expected back in August as he recovers from Tommy John surgery), then the Rays might be able to make a run at the AL Wild Card, but as of right now they seem to be just a few games better than last year.
4th Place
Toronto Blue Jays (82-80)
Toronto has one of the scariest offenses I've ever seen, but that will only get them so far. In case you don't recall, the Jays were below .500 at the All-Star Break before making the deadline deals for David Price, Troy Tulowitzki, Ben Revere and a number of relievers. However, Price, Revere, Mark Buehrle and a few others from the bullpen are no longer with the club.
The departure of GM Alex Anthopoulos really let the air out of the tires too, as he's been succeeded by two guys from the Cleveland Indians (Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins) - both of whom have very little experience working for winning teams in recent years.
The offense has no question marks. That unit will be returning pretty much in full and it managed to outscore the second-most prolific offense (the Yankees) by 127 runs. Their team OPS (.797) was also 45 points higher than the second-place Houston Astros.
But the pitching is going to be an issue. Marcus Stroman is seemingly great, but how great can he be for a full season with just 30 MLB games under his belt? Will the team move Aaron Sanchez and/or Roberto Osuna into the rotation? If so, how effective will both of them be? Were J.A. Happ and Jesse Chavez at all formidable replacements for Price and Buehrle? Are the Jays actually going to rely on Drew Hutchison at all? Can Marco Estrada replicate his most successful campaign in his eight-year MLB career?
The only constant here is R.A. Dickey. The Jays know exactly what they'll get out of him: a decent ERA and over 200 innings pitched. If that's your slam-dunk pitcher, then you're in big trouble, especially with other concerns surrounding the bullpen (newcomer Drew Storen, Sanchez/Osuna potentially shifting to rotation and Brett Cecil coming off a significant injury).
As we saw in the ALCS, if the Jays can't pitch, they won't win. The Royals beat them at their own game and outscored them 38-26 in those six games.
Last Place
Baltimore Orioles (79-83)
This division top-to-bottom is arguably one of the most talented in the MLB, which is why the O's will come in last place even with 79 wins, which actually isn't an awful season. I'm predicting Baltimore's success based on their current roster despite the rumors that have linked them to Yovani Gallardo and Dexter Fowler.
The Orioles nearly experienced another purge of free agents, but managed to re-sign Chris Davis (although at a hefty price), Darren O'Day and Matt Wieters. However, one could argue they lost the most important free agent, Wei-Yin Chen, to the Miami Marlins. The Orioles rotation is now easily among the worst in the MLB without the left-hander and they've done nothing to address that yet.
As for the lineup, the acquisition of Mark Trumbo might help, but the slugger has been largely ineffective for two years now despite three straight seasons of at least 29 home runs and 87 RBI from 2011-2013. The corner outfield spots are still unresolved, as the depth chart lists Ryan Flaherty and Nolan Reimold in right and left field.
The club's strong suits are power-hitting (Davis, Trumbo, Adam Jones and Manny Machado) as well as relief pitching (Zach Britton and Darren O'Day at the back end of the bullpen). The starting rotation stinks, the defense is mediocre and the lineup can barely hit for average (.250 in 2015) and doesn't get on base too often (.307 OBP in 2015, which ranked 24th). Overall, they didn't really make improvements this offseason - they just avoided losing a bunch of free agents.
Manager Buck Showalter is always a good guy to have in the dugout during times like these, but I don't think he's going to make that big of a difference in 2016.
Our next division analysis will come later in the week when we take a look at the AL Central.
