An asteroid the size of a basketball court will pass by Earth between March 5 and March 8, and although many are stirring up rumors that there is a chance it may come into contact with the Earth, NASA says that there is no chance of this happening.
"There is no concern whatsoever regarding this asteroid - unless you were interested in seeing it with a telescope," said Paul Chodas, manager of NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS). "Prospects for observing this asteroid, which were not very good to begin with, are now even worse, because the asteroid is likely to be farther away, and therefore dimmer than previously believed."
When NASA previously announced the approaching Near-Earth Object, named 2013 TX68, it revealed that current predictions for its distance from the Earth as it passes are as far as 5 million kilometers and as close as 24,000 kilometers. If you're thinking that's quite a range, you're right - the reason for this variation is that scientists have struggled to pinpoint the orbit of the asteroid since the only time it has ever been observed is in 2013.
"Think of it this way. Imagine you're an outfielder in a baseball game. You see the pitcher throw the ball, and the batter swings. It's a hit! But one-tenth of a second after the batter makes contact, you close your eyes," explains astronomer Phil Plait. "Now, based on the fraction of a second you saw the ball move, can you catch it?"
Back in February, Chodas acknowledged this uncertainty as well, although he hinted at the possibility of gathering information on the asteroid during its flyby.
"This asteroid's orbit is quite uncertain, and it will be hard to predict where to look for it," he said. "There is a chance that the asteroid will be picked up by our asteroid search telescopes when it safely flies past us next month, providing us with data to more precisely define its orbit around the sun."
The size of the 2013 TX68 is small for asteroid standards, meaning even if it did collide with Earth, it would pose no threat to human life due to the fact that it would quickly be whittled down to a smaller, harmless size by the Earth's atmosphere.
After its flyby on March 8, TX68 will once again pass by the Earth in 2017, 2046 and 2097. Much like the coming event, the odds of any sort of impact on these occasions are also nearly nonexistent.
"I fully expect any future observations to reduce the probability even more," Chodas said.
