Is Arian Foster done? We know he's done with the Houston Texans as the team released the veteran rusher this morning to avoid paying his 2016 salary of almost $9 million. But is he done as a legitimate No. 1 running back in fantasy football?
The soon to be 30-year-old has missed 23 games in the past three seasons and is returning from a torn Achilles. But in the four games he was healthy last year, he produced. Foster averaged 97.5 total yards per game and scored three times in 2015. In the 25 games he has appeared in over the last three seasons, he's averaged 107.5 total yards and found the end zone 18 times.
So, is he done?
The short answer for fantasy purposes: most likely. Whichever team he lands with in free agency is not going to rely on Foster to be their bell-cow first option. The days of his 300-plus carry, 40-plus reception seasons are over. A more realistic scenario is him taking on a limited role in a time share somewhere where he won't be taking as many hits as he did in his prime. As a pass-catching back and a secondary option on a good team, Foster could still be in line for 10-15 touches per game.
Which teams have a role like that open on their roster?
The first landing spot that comes to mind is the Oakland Raiders. Head coach Jack Del Rio has already expressed a desire to lighten Latavius Murray's workload next season and despite his 41 catches, Murray averaged just 5.7 yards per reception. Foster has averaged 9.1 for his career. Plus, the Raiders have north of $70 million in salary cap space this offseason so expect them to be active in free agency.
Another squad that makes sense is the Denver Broncos. Ronnie Hillman is scheduled to hit the open market and C.J. Anderson struggled in the first half of the season. General manager John Elway could seek a veteran presence to add to the mix. However, the Broncos aren't expected to have a ton of cash in free agency, especially if they re-sign Brock Osweiler.
Regardless of where Foster ends up, you shouldn't be actively targeting him in your fantasy drafts. Though he can still be a productive player in the NFL, his fantasy upside is capped by his extensive injury history, age, and the reduced workload that is likely coming his way. In standard formats, Foster is no more than a RB3. In full-point PPR leagues he's a low-end RB2/flex play. I'd rather bank on a bounce back from Jeremy Hill or another expectation defying season from Darren McFadden than role with Foster.
