Researchers studying the long-term costs of fighting HIV/AIDS have come up with a grim picture. A significant shortfall is predicted in the resources required to fight the epidemic in the countries most affected, i.e. Africa - Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
These nine countries account for about 70 percent of the HIV cases across the world.
Researchers at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health set out to calculate the cost of long-term as well as short-term treatment and prevention of the HIV/AIDS virus for the years 2015-2050 in the nine worst affected countries.
The results of the study are not encouraging.
The cost ranges from $98 billion at current coverage levels to $261 billion if coverage is scaled up.
"The HIV epidemic is far from over. The magnitude of funding needed to sustain the HIV fight is very large and the consequences of complacency even larger," said Rifat Atun, first author of the study and professor of global health systems.
Researchers based their study on data that they collected from Spectrum, a tool used by UNAIDS. The researchers used the "Goals module from Spectrum, and applied the most up-to-date cost and coverage data to provide a range of estimates for future financing obligations. The four different scale-up scenarios vary by treatment initiation threshold and service coverage level. We compared the model projections to current domestic and international financial sources available in selected SSA countries."
They came to the conclusion that if "antiretroviral treatment" was to be made available "to all HIV-positive individuals" it "would cost $261 billion.
The researchers suggest "upfront" investment in HIV services "to achieve high coverage levels will reduce HIV incidence, prevention and future treatment expenditures by realizing long-term preventive effects of ART to reduce HIV transmission."
They also noted that "Future obligations are too substantial for most SSA countries to be met from domestic sources alone."
"The problem of predictable and sustainable funding must be resolved. There is an ethical responsibility to continue financing for those receiving ART, and not abandon them to death," said Atun in the paper.
Angela Y. Chang, Osondu Ogbuoji, Stephen Resch, Jan Hontelez and Till Bärnighausen were the other members of the research team.
The study has been published in BMJ Open.
