New research suggests China's carbon emissions may have peaked in 2014, years earlier than the country pledged.
As part of its commitment to curb the impact of global warming, China promised to bring greenhouse gas emissions to a peak by "around 2030" at last year's global climate change conference in Paris. Therefore, the latest report suggesting the country has peaked earlier than expected may raise concerns that existing targets are too easy and should reexamined.
China is one of the world's leading carbon dioxide emitters. The study, led by the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the London School of Economics, argues that if China's emissions have not already peaked, then they are very likely to do so within the next decade.
Slowing the country's carbon emissions is a result of reduced economic growth and government policies making renewable energy sources available and enforcing a low-carbon path to reduce the wide spread air pollution in China's major cities. If current trends continue, it would indicate the country's emissions have already peaked, authors Fergus Green and Nicholas Stern explained, adding that the 2030 peak was a very conservative estimate.
"It is quite possible that emissions will fall modestly from now on, implying that 2014 was the peak," the report said, noting that recent data already showed that China's emissions fell in 2015. "If emissions do grow above 2014 levels ... that growth trajectory is likely to be relatively flat, and a peak would still be highly likely by 2025."
However, the country's representatives disagree. In response to the report, China's senior climate change envoy, Xie Zhenhua, said the country's emissions had not peaked in 2014 and were still growing, defending China's 2030 target as reasonable.
China may face pressures to establish tougher targets if it becomes clear that existing goals are in fact too easy, according to U.S. climate change envoy Todd Stern.
"It will be up to the Chinese Government whether they increase their target," he said, "but there will obviously be a lot of international opinion looking forward to additional measures - whether it is China or anyone else."
The recent climate report was published in the journal Climate Policy.
