Super-serious drumroll for Bambi's habitat as well as for carbon uptake and general relaxation in forests worldwide. We've reached a crucial point in terms of deciding how to manage wooded areas around the world.
That is, what we do now will count and will determine how forests change in the next 50 years, says a new report from USDA Forest Service (U.S. Forest Service) scientists and partners.
"This research is vital to everyone concerned about sustaining diverse, healthy, productive forests and the associated ecosystem services, commodities, and jobs our forests provide," Tony Ferguson of the Northern Research Station and the Forest Products Laboratory said. "It provides a scientific foundation for exploring and discussing the future of forests, and it underscores the role of management in making forests healthier and more resilient."
That new report is called "Future Forests of the Northern United States." Research for it began in 2009, and it analyzes how our past and present actions could influence northern forests in coming decades.
The top concerns regarding wooded areas are expansion of invasive species; decreased species diversity; the fact that many trees in today's forests are around the same age or are not old growth; urban expansion that is taking away from forest acreage; fragmentation of wooded land; parcelling of forest ownership; impact of white-tailed deer populations on tree regeneration and the composition of forests; and ramped-up carbon emissions in the atmosphere.
"The challenges facing northern forests are large, complicated, intertwined, and enduring," said Stephen Shifley, one of the 30 co-authors on the project. "By applying the best available science to look ahead at how forests are likely to change over the next 50 years, we think forest owners, managers, planners, and policymakers will be better prepared to avoid many future problems by implementing proactive management practices that are ecologically sound, socially acceptable and economically viable."
The report notes several trends for the next 50 years. Forest area will likely decrease 3.5 to 6.4 percent, particularly around urban and suburban areas. While most forests have trees that are 40 to 80 years old getting older, their tree and age diversity will decrease along with several types of wildlife habitat. Invasive pests continue to make headway. These include the Asian longhorned beetle, spruce budworm, emerald ash borer, Sirex woodwasp, hemlock woolly adelgid, winter moth and gypsy moth. Dozens of invasive plants also take more and more space away from native species.
There are other projected changes to look out for. Carbon uptake in the forests and their soils might decrease by about 2 percent, because aging forests will grow more slowly and forest acreage will be reduced. Population increases in the northern areas will likely decrease federal and state park land per capita by 19 percent and non-federal forest land per capita by 26 percent.
Follow Catherine Arnold on Twitter at @TreesWhales.
