The West Coast Conference has been dominated by Gonzaga since head coach Mark Few got there 17 years ago. The Zags won the WCC tournament again on Tuesday night, which will send them to their 18th consecutive NCAA tournament. This season though, Gonzaga did not come into the tournament as the one seed or the favorites - St. Mary's did.
Even after the loss on Tuesday night, St. Mary's only has five losses on the season and it makes a compelling case to get an at-large bid. St. Mary's résumé isn't exactly sparkling, but it is on the bubble and should at least be considered to make the tournament.
The Gaels obviously would have preferred to get the automatic bid to ensure a spot in the tournament but there are some people who still think they are on the right side of the bubble. St. Mary's résumé has a lot of holes though, and because of that there are people that think its at-large bid isn't quite as safe.
If you watch St. Mary's play you would likely be in agreement that they belong in the tournament, but if you look at their résumé it shows why there is a lot of doubt. Yes, the fact that they finished the regular season 27-5 will work in their favor, but the deeper you look at those 27 wins, the more they look kind of empty. The Gaels had zero wins this season against RPI top-50 schools and their best wins were the two over Gonzaga in the regular season. If Gonzaga had lost on Tuesday night, they would more than likely have been out of the tournament, so the Zags being St. Mary's best win isn't all that great.
Add on the fact that the Gaels were swept by Pepperdine (RPI 131) and you can see the problem with their résumé. One thing working in St. Mary's favor is the fact that it has a solid RPI of 38. The selection committee loves RPI and St. Mary's has a very respectable compared to the rest of the teams on the bubble. To go against that though, another area the committee weighs heavily is strength of schedule and the Gaels are also lacking in that department. St. Mary's strength of schedule is 165th best in the nation, and while you could usually argue that it's because it's in a bad conference, that isn't the case this year because their non-conference strength of schedule is ranked 157th.
Overall, St. Mary's looks like a team that is firmly on the bubble and it can really go either way with the Gaels. Their best case scenario might be to play in a play-in game as one of the last four teams in. The eye test says they should be in but their résumé leaves a lot to be desired. This is one of the more fascinating cases to watch as Selection Sunday approaches.
