Yesterday, the Jacksonville Jaguars signed soon to be 28-year-old running back Chris Ivory to a five-year deal worth $32.5 million. This sizeable free agent expense comes just one year after the Jags invested a second-round pick into RB T.J. Yeldon. If this sounds like an uneven use of resources, it's because it is. You would have thought the Jaguars had learned their lesson after the Toby Gerhardt signing, but clearly there's a reason why the team hasn't enjoyed a winning season since George Bush was president.
Not only should this move frustrate fans that hope and pray for a legitimate front office, but it also throws a wrench into the plans of fantasy football owners. Both Ivory and Yeldon were in the RB2/Flex range last year, with the rookie expected to ascend the rankings as he took on a bigger role in Year 2. Now, the two will cannibalize one another's workloads and diminish each other's fantasy values.
Said Jacksonville general manager David Caldwell:
On acquisition of Chris Ivory, who joins T.J. Yeldon as Jags’ top RBs: "They’ll probably split carries.” …Key is keeping both guys fresh.
— Jeff Darlington (@JeffDarlington) March 10, 2016
I'm no expert, but I'm pretty sure you don't pay a running back $6.4 million per season (eighth-highest annual total in the league at the position) to "split carries." You pay a guy that much money to be your No. 1 ball-carrier. But when it comes to which player I'd rather have on my fantasy roster in 2016, I'm still going with Yeldon.
The rookie was solid if unspectacular in 2015. In 12 games, Yeldon carried the ball 182 times for 740 yards (4.1) and two touchdowns while also catching 36 passes for 279 yards and one additional score. But more important than Yeldon's numbers is the lack of trust I have in Ivory.
It's tru that Ivory is coming off the best season of his career. He exceeded 1,000 rushing yards for the first time since entering the league in 2010. But is it realistic to expect him to repeat those numbers in his seventh season or is a regression to the mean the more likely outcome? Remember, Ivory saw his workload reduced significantly once Bilal Powell returned from injury in December.
Don't forget, there's a reason the New York Jets let Ivory walk in free agency. Though a tough runner, Ivory doesn't offer much in the way of pass-catching (just 53 career receptions in 70 games). New York is heading into the 2016 season with Matt Forte, Khiry Robinson and Powell in their backfield for a reason. Ivory just isn't that dynamic of a player.
Though healthier during his three-year stint with the Jets, Ivory has still only appeared in a full 16-game schedule just once in his career and is coming off a career high 277 total touches. We've seen how quickly running backs can age in this league, especially ones who aren't used to all that wear and tear.
Yeldon may not have exploded onto the scene like fellow rookie Todd Gurley did last year, but the second-rounder is a more versatile option than Ivory who should be better next season. Unfortunately, Ivory's presence ahead of him on the depth chart will cap his once promising fantasy value. If this situation is indeed a legit timeshare, neither player should be viewed as more than a RB3, with Yeldon getting the slight edge.
