It's the NCAA Tournament. Nothing is out of the realm of possibility, except probably a No. 16 seed taking down a No. 1 seed. So what crazy upsets will happen to mess up your bracket this time around?
Last year we saw a handful when George State (14) beat Baylor (3), Dayton (11) beat Providence (6), UCLA (11) beat SMU (6) and UAB (14) beat Iowa State (3). Those were some big bracket busters considering a lot of people were high on the potential tournament performance of the Big 12, which saw two disappointing early exits in Baylor and Iowa State.
So what upsets can you pick this year to avoid having your bracket turn into a disaster?
Here are our top three for the first round:
*They all come in the West Region
No. 11 Northern Iowa over No. 6 Texas
Northern Iowa's reputation as a giant killer will not go unnoticed. The Missouri Valley Conference champs took down North Carolina, Iowa State and Wichita State this season and they come into the NCAA Tournament on fire, having won 12 of their last 13 games.
On the other hand, Texas endured a collapse at the end of the season after it appeared as if it could be a significant threat in the Big 12 tournament. The Longhorns dropped five of their last nine, including embarrassing defeats at the hands of Kansas and Baylor (twice) to close out the season. Yes, they managed to take down West Virginia and Oklahoma, but their consistency is a glaring issue and their first matchup in the tourney is no gimme.
A couple of stats to keep in mind: Northern Iowa ranks 11th in the NCAA in points allowed per game (62.9) and Texas ranks 222nd with 71.3 points scored per game.
No. 10 VCU over No. 7 Oregon State
I still don't understand a number of the committee's selections, and that includes Oregon State. The Beavers finished seventh in the Pac-12 and sport a 19-12 record. Three of those wins came against Top 25 teams, but none of them were out of conference and one was against USC, who isn't ranked in the Top 25 anymore. They've dropped four of their last eight and managed to lose to every good team they faced over that span.
On the other hand, VCU played a much more balanced out of conference schedule to begin the year, and won 12 straight games after starting 5-5. The Rams suffered only two double-digit losses this season and one of them came yesterday in the Atlantic-10 tournament final against St. Joe's, who ranks 23rd in RPI. VCU has a better balance on offense and defense, so look for this matchup to be one of your 10-7 upsets.
No. 14 Green Bay over No. 3 Texas A&M
Yes, this is a bold one, but we saw two No. 14 seeds win last year. I believe this is the most likely one as Utah should take down Fresno State, West Virginia is likely to trounce Stephen F. Austin and Miami seems like a lock over Buffalo. Then again, anything is possible.
But Green Bay is a scoring machine and its recent hot streak could meet A&M at the right time. The Aggies displayed their vulnerability in late January/early February when they dropped five of six games to Arkansas, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Alabama and LSU. They fell to Kentucky in the SEC tournament final on Sunday and their defense will again be tested against Green Bay, who is sixth in the NCAA in scoring (84.2 points per game). Green Bay guard Carrington Love averages 2.6 steals per game (third in NCAA), so he'll be a player to keep an eye on as A&M guards Jalen Jones and Danuel House hope to keep up their scoring (both average 15.5 ppg) heading into the big dance.
The Aggies weren't awfully impressive in the weak SEC Conference despite impressive wins over Iowa State, Baylor, Texas and Gonzaga earlier in the year. However, none of those wins came on the road (two were at a neutral site), so it'll be interesting to see how they handle the Phoenix, who have experience against good defensive clubs such as Valparaiso (ninth in points allowed) and good offensive clubs such as Oakland (first in points per game).
I'm a big fan of high-scoring teams that are coming off conference tournament wins, so Green Bay is a viable option to win as a No. 14 seed in the first round.
