Scientists have examined the potential risk for Zika outbreak in U.S. cities. Now, they've released a map that shows which cities are more likely to experience an outbreak than others.
Key factors can combine to produce a Zika virus outbreak. It's actually spread through the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Already, it's been found throughout much of Latin America and the Caribbean. Researchers expect that because of this, the virus will also spread across much of the southern and eastern United States as the weather warms.
Summertime weather conditions are favorable for populations of the mosquito along the East Coast and across the southern tier of the U.S. This could mean that these portions of the United States could be at risk for the spread of this virus.
The researchers analyzed travel patterns from countries and territories from Zika outbreaks. This revealed that cities in southern Florida and impoverished areas in southern Texas would be most likely to be vulnerable for virus transmission.
"This research can help us anticipate the timing and location of possible Zika virus outbreaks in certain U.S. cities, said Andrew Monaghan, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) scientist and lead author of the study. "While there is much we still don't know about the dynamics of Zika virus transmission, understanding where the Aedes aegypti mosquito can survive in the U.S. and how its abundance fluctuates seasonally may help guide mosquito control efforts and publish health preparedness."
The study itself doesn't have a specific prediction for this year. However, long-range forecasts for the summer predict higher than average temperatures. This could mean a larger spread for the mosquitoes and a higher chance of the spread of the Zika virus, as well.
Even if the Zika virus does enter the mainland United States, though, it's unlikely to spread as widely as in Latin America or the Caribbean. This is largely because a large portion of Americans work in air-conditioned and largely-sealed homes and offices. In addition, warm temperatures across the northeast largely abate when summer gives way to autumn.
The findings are important when it comes to studying the spread of this virus. More specifically, it could help researchers with the coming summer months and putting measures into place to prevent the spread.
The findings were published in the March 16 journal PLOS Currents Outbreaks.
