Kenta Maeda excelled as a starter in Japan during his eight-year stint with the Hiroshima Carp. The right-hander then signed an eight-year contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, but MLB scouts don't believe he's going to meet the expectations many previously projected.
Maeda, 27, has made a good impression in his first spring training. In three starts (8⅔ innings) he's allowed zero earned runs (two unearned) on seven hits and four walks to go along with eight strikeouts. Opposing batters are hitting just .212 against him.
However, he still has to prove himself on a consistent basis at the major league level, but scouts don't feel his ceiling is that high.
"I saw him a week ago against the A's," ESPN Insider Keith Law said on the Baseball Tonight Podcast with Buster Olney. "His fastball was a little bit light ... he did show a full assortment of pitches. He's got three off-speed pitches, all of which look like they can be major league average, maybe a tick better.
"I thought it was a fourth-starter profile. The fastball is a little short, I think he's going to give up harder contact and may give up too many home runs on the fastball ... i asked a couple of other scouts that have been following the Dodgers and saw him that day, and every single one of them said the same thing. 'You're looking at a fourth-starter profile.'"
There are also some health concerns regarding the right-hander. The Dodgers saw some red flags after his physical, which revealed potential elbow and shoulder issues, which is why he ended up signing a $25 million deal loaded with incentives.
With that being said, it's hard to deny his success in Japan. While it's not the same competition as MLB, a number of Japanese starters have found success in the United States. Maeda went 97-67 with a 2.39 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 1,233 strikeouts in 218 games (1,509⅔ innings) from 2008-2015.
Manager Dave Roberts said he already earned a spot in the starting rotation, which was expected, but how will the transition go once 2016 officially starts?
"This is where I expected myself to be," Maeda said earlier this week. "I'm going to continue to get better until the season [starts]."
It's not exactly a bad thing that scouts are projecting him to possess No. 4-type quality stuff. As long as he can deliver quality starts and avoid hitting the disabled list like every other Dodgers' pitcher, then Los Angele shouldn't have too much to worry about because their financial commitment to Maeda isn't excessive - it's actually a bargain if he can live up to expectations.
