According to a number of scouts and analysts, Washington Nationals top prospect Lucas Giolito is the No. 1 pitching prospect in Major League Baseball, even though he has yet to reach Triple-A. On top of that, based on the Nationals' current pitching situation, his MLB debut should be coming soon.
The injury to Bronson Arroyo all but guarantees Giolito will be up sooner rather than later. Arroyo was attempting a comeback after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2014 and there was a chance he could join the rotation at some point in 2016, but a torn rotator cuff is likely to derail those efforts.
Giolito, 21, was selected 16th overall in the 2012 MLB Draft and has enjoyed a successful minor league career to date. The right-hander is 19-10 with a 2.63 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 281 strikeouts in 53 games (253⅔ innings) between five levels of the minors. He reached Double-A Harrisburg last year, and while it was his worst stint of his professional career (3.80 ERA in eight starts), it's clear the Nats are working to stretch him out to get ready for the bigs.
Overall, Giolito finished 7-7 with a 3.15 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 131 strikeouts in 21 games (19 starts), totaling 117 innings (career-high) between Harrisburg and High Class A Potomac.
Washington's projected starting rotation consists of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Tanner Roark and Joe Ross. However, the club must start preparing for life after Strasburg and Gonzalez, as both could become free agents after 2016.
Giolito is a good place to start for that.
"If he's not up by June, something would have to go wrong," one scout told ESPN's Jayson Stark. "You know what [Noah] Syndergaard and [Steven] Matz did for the Mets when they came up? This guy is in that same category."
Josh Shepardson of FanGraphs believes Giolito will be what Syndergaard was for the Mets in 2015.
"His stuff is elite - obviously - as his high ranking on prospect lists suggests, and with the Nationals fancying themselves contenders, Giolito could provide their rotation a shot in the arm a guy like Tanner Roark and isn't capable of," Shepardson said.
Shephardson also noted Giolito's FIP at Double-A was a 3.18 (Cardinals pitcher Carlos Martinez registered that same total in 2015), which suggests his stint there was better than his 3.80 ERA suggested.
The prospect has yet to make a start in spring training, but in three relief appearances he's allowed three earned runs on six hits and two walks. The good thing is that he's struck out eight batters, but general manager Mike Rizzo said he's not yet sure where he fits in as far as the 2016 MLB roster goes, although he hopes the team can "feel comfortable enough to count on him sometime this year."
It's more than likely Giolito is critiqued based on how he starts the season off in the minors. If all goes as planned, Nationals fans can start getting excited for his highly anticipated debut.
