After a cup of tea in the majors in 2014, the rest of the league could see why the Boston Red Sox were just waiting to get Mookie Betts in the lineup. And after a nearly full season in 2015, the second-baseman-turned-outfielder is no longer just the next Red Sox phenom the Nation is getting too overexcited for.
No, Red Sox Nation appropriately hyped up their 23-year-old starting right fielder because even Las Vegas is recognizing his potential. Next up on the Betts bandwagon might well be fantasy baseball players, though his projection for this year is unclear and based mostly on potential.
OddsShark.com, which compiles betting odds from various sports books, projected Betts as the fifth most likely American League player to win the MVP award. The only players ahead of him are the reigning AL MVP, Josh Donaldson; the 2014 recipient, Mike Trout; a two-time winner in Miguel Cabrera; and Manny Machado.
While the MVP award is voted on by baseball writers and has no real connection to fantasy games, consider the names accompanying Betts in the previous paragraph. Trout and Donaldson are first-round locks, while Cabrera and Machado should at least be taken by the end of the second round. If Las Vegas thinks Betts' 2016 campaign will be on par with those players, logically he should at least get some first-round consideration, right?
The jury is still out on Betts' defense due to his position change, and fantasy baseball does not count defensive stats (in the vast majority of leagues). In 654 plate appearances last season, Betts totaled 119 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus).
That stat is generally considered to be the most accurate and fair yardstick for offensive production alone. It aims to quantify a player's real offensive impact, as it is league- and ballpark-adjusted. Thus, wRC+ can render an accurate comparison between a player who hits in a hitter-friendly park like Betts with one who plays in a cavernous park, like Justin Upton.
Betts had a 119 wRC+ last season, which means he created 19 percent more runs than the league average, which is 100. Upton's wRC+ was 120, and they ranked 17th and 18th among all MLB outfielders. Though unspectacular, Betts has the power-speed combo coveted by fantasy baseball player.
He will start the season hitting leadoff, meaning his at-bats will be maximized if he stays healthy, and he has the Green Monster of Fenway which promises many an extra base hit to righties who can reach it. But also consider that Betts is 23 and has time to improve on his .291 batting average in just 867 career at-bats.
Whether you play in a category league or one with head-to-head matchups, Betts figures to be one of the best values in fantasy baseball should he fall to the middle or end of the second round. If you can get a top-line player at a shallow position like shortstop or second base in the first round, you should strongly consider taking Betts with your second pick if he is available to you.
His Red Sox teammates have already seen his potential, and it is just a matter of time before the rest of the fantasy baseball world does too.
