Beyond a handful of key moves in NFL free agency, the Chicago Bears have remained relatively quiet this offseason. But with the 2016 NFL Draft looming, the Bears, led by GM Ryan Pace and head coach John Fox, may soon change that narrative as they seem well-positioned to make a run at one of the top quarterbacks set to be available later this month.
Beyond signing former Fox acolyte, Broncos linebacker Danny Trevathan, along with cornerback Tracy Porter and Bobby Massie, and cutting longtime tackle Jermon Bushrod loose, Pace and Fox have been content to watch from the sidelines as the rest of the NFL tossed bad money after worse on a number of free agent pickups. Once the first-round of the 2016 NFL Draft - which will be held in Chicago, coincidentally - rolls around though, that should change.
It's been suggested in the past that Pace did just about everything he could last year to "jump" from No. 7, where the team ultimately landed wide receiver Kevin White, to No. 2 so that they could secure Marcus Mariota.
And while that effort ultimately failed, the Bears, set to select at No. 11 on the 2016 draft's first day, have the chance to finally find themselves a suitable long-term replacement for incumbent Jay Cutler.
In fact, while Cutler's presence and outsized contract would seem a vote against drafting a quarterback of the future, it actually may be yet another good reason to select one this year, especially considering two of the top options - NDSU's Carson Wentz and Memphis' Paxton Lynch - played at smaller collegiate programs and would likely need at least a year or two of seasoning before taking the reins of an NFL offense.
With nine selections come April, one in each of the draft's seven rounds, as well as two in the fourth and two in the sixth, the Bears and Pace have ample capital with which to maneuver themselves into just about any pick they'd like.
That being said, getting up into the top 10, let alone the top 5, won't be easy or cheap.
Based on Jimmy Johnson's old draft value chart, it would take a pretty significant investment for Chicago to find their way up to, say, No. 1 via trade with the Tennessee Titans, who don't have the need for a franchise quarterback after selecting Mariota last year.
In fact, even using Football Perspective's updated chart would mean the Bears give up an arm and a leg.
Per FP, giving up the No. 11, No. 41 and No. 72 selections would still leave them a little short of fair compensation for the first-overall pick. And when you consider the fact that teams already inside the top-10 like the Chargers, the Cowboys, the Niners and the Eagles could all be in the market for a quarterback, it sure looks like Pace and Co. would have to pay an unseemly premium to move up.
But here's the thing - they may not have to. Sure, Wentz and Cal's Jared Goff are likely to be gone well before the Bears can reach them, but Lynch, widely viewed as a tier lower, should be there at 11. And guys like Penn State's Christian Hackenberg and Mississippi State's Dak Prescott could last well into the third and fourth rounds.
Cutler, 32, is entering just the third season of his mammoth seven-year, $126.7 million contract handed to him by Phil Emery and the previous Bears regime. His cap hit for 2016 is exorbitant ($17 million), but is somehow trumped by the dead cap penalty Chicago would incur were they to cut him loose - $19 million.
Cutler, in all of his dour, doughy-faced glory, will be the - or, at least, a - Bears quarterback through next season. After that, when his cap hit stays in the mid-teens, but the dead money drops to $2 million - well, we'll let you decide that on your own.
But that's precisely why the Bears should do everything in their power to secure their quarterback of the future now, via the 2016 NFL Draft. Whether it is Wentz, Lynch, Goff or any of the other guys available, they can sit behind Cutler for at least one season, maybe two, hone their skills and approach and eventually take over when Chicago is finally ready to truly compete.
