A new model may predict where to find fossils as scientists have created a new method to identify the areas where it is best to hunt for long-extinct animals.
In this latest study, researchers estimated the ages and spatial distribution of Australian megafauna fossils. Then, they built a series of mathematical models to determine which areas of the country are most likely to contain fossils.
More specifically, scientists used modelling techniques that are commonly used in ecology. They modeled past distribution of species, the geological suitability of fossil preservation and the likelihood of fossil discovery in the field. Then, scientists applied their techniques to a range of Australian megafauna that became extinct over the last 50,000 years.
In order to create the distribution models, researchers used "hindcasted global circulation models." These provided predicted temperature and rainfall for the past. Then, scientists matched these with the estimated age of fossils.
"A chain of idea conditions must occur for fossils to form, which means they are extremely rare - so finding as many as possible can tell us more of what the past was like, and why certain species went extinct," said Corey Bradshaw of the University of Adelaide, one of the researchers of the new study. "Typically, however, we use haphazard ways to find fossils. Mostly people just go to excavation sites and surrounding areas where fossils have been found before. We hope our models make it easier for paleontologists and archaeologists to identify new fossil sites that could yield vast treasures of prehistoric information."
Researchers eventually created a probability map for each layer of fossil formation, which allowed them to potentially find out fossil locations around the continent.
"Our methods predict potential fossil locations across an entire continent, which is useful to identify potential fossil areas far from already known sites," said Ingmar Unkel of Germany's Kiel University, one of the researchers. "It's a good exploration filter; after which remote-sensing approaches and fine-scale expert knowledge could complement the search."
The findings could help researchers pinpoint areas where they may be able to uncover more fossils. This is especially important moving forward and learning more about our planet's ancient past.
The findings were published in the April edition of the journal PLOS One.
