Gone are the days of the traditional summer blockbuster movie season. When "Deadpool" can launch in February and make almost $800 million, you know you've entered into uncharted territory.
But for convenience's sake, let's say the first weekend in May marks the true launching point for summer movies. Going by that logic, the first movie on the list may take the crown for biggest opening of the year.
According to early tracking reports, "Captain America: Civil War" is projected to take in around $175 million during its debut frame.
To provide some context, $175 million would be the fifth-highest opening weekend gross of all-time, behind just "Star Wars: The Force Awakens," "Jurassic World" and both "Avengers" films. More importantly, it would give Marvel the edge yet again over its closest rivals as "Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice" took in an impressive $166 million in its first weekend. Though "Civil War" doesn't possess the same name brand recognition when it comes to its superheroes, it does feature characters fans have spent the last eight or so years becoming familiar with. The momentum of the Marvel Cinematic Universe and the overwhelmingly positive reviews "Civil War" is generating should be enough to overtake "Batman v Superman" at the box office.
But could those numbers actually be underselling "Civil War?"
Tracking reports aren't always accurate, especially for recent Disney features. Industry insiders expected "Zootopia" to do $60 million in its debut, but the film powered through those numbers to top $70 million. Last weekend, "The Jungle Book" was expected to settle somewhere around $70 million, but wound up surpassing $100 million. Whatever the reason, Disney has been overachieving and exceeding expectations at the box office so far this year. Who's to say the same won't happen with "Civil War?"
It all depends on if "Civil War" plays like "Captain America 3" or "Avengers 2.5." The very well-received "Captain America: The Winter Soldier" did $95 million domestically its opening weekend. The $175 million projection is a very fair number when considering the extra dollars sequels usually drum up. But if "Civil War" plays like an "Avengers" movie - which is possible given its inclusive cast - then the opening weekend numbers could be closer to $200 million.
We'll find out soon enough as "Captain America: Civil War" arrives May 6.
Follow Brandon Katz at @Great_Katzby.
