Through two NFL seasons, the New England Patriots haven't asked much of Jimmy Garoppolo. Really, when Tom Brady sits atop your quarterback depth chart, there's not any reason to have a backup like Garoppolo do much other than take practice reps, hit some mop-up duty snaps, and finish off preseason games after Brady's had his fill.
But with NFL year three looming and the news Monday that Brady had been suspended (again) by the NFL for his role in the Deflategate scandal, Garoppolo has suddenly become the centerpiece of the Patriots' offense for the first four games of the 2016 NFL season.
The question is - can the former second-round pick out of Eastern Illinois handle it? And further, what kind of shape will he leave the team in for Brady when the future Hall of Famer returns Week 5 against the Cleveland Browns?
Looking at the Patriots' early season schedule - away for an early Sunday Night matchup against the Arizona Cardinals, home against the Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills - it's hard to know exactly what to expect out of a New England team that will, for the first time since 2008, when Brady went down with a torn ACL, be led by someone other than Tom Terrific.
But barring some kind of miracle performance from Garoppolo, the slate looks like a daunting and ultimately troubling one for the Pats. In short, 2-2 may be the best fans can hope for.
The Cardinals were one of the best teams in the league in 2015 and, assuming quarterback Carson Palmer's psyche wasn't completely shattered by his disastrous outing against the Carolina Panthers in the NFC Championship Game, they should pick up right where they left off in 2016.
With pass rusher Chandler Jones added to an already-stout defensive front (thanks, Pats!), the Cardinals will look to tee off on the unproven Garappolo in primetime. Jimmy G. may play well - he's shown during his stints that he's best when distributing the ball quickly, not trying to fire it downfield - and get the ball out on time, but it's unlikely he passes this test.
If the Pats can limit David Johnson, there's chance they can keep this one close. But if Johnson shakes his big frame loose, this one could get ugly in a hurry as Palmer spreads the ball around to his receivers and Garoppolo does what he can to keep the Pats in the chase.
With the Dolphins, long the Patriots' AFC East punching bag, next on the docket, it wouldn't be surprising to see Garoppolo right the ship to some degree and manage the Pats to victory. But these aren't you pappy's Pats. Without Brady, a lot of the shine comes off the New England offensive toys. And with the Dolphins and Pats splitting the season series each of the past three years, this game doesn't look like as much of a slamdunk any more, even with Miami coming off a difficult 6-10 year and an offseason of soul-searching.
You want to assume Garoppolo will make good use of Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski and a hopefully healthy Dion Lewis, especially against a Dolphins defense that'll be breaking in uninspiring new parts like Kiko Alonso and Byron Maxwell, but as long as Ndamukong Suh is anchoring that defensive line, Miami will be a tough out.
It's hard not to lean the Patriots' way on this one, but again - Garoppolo's not going to have an easy day, especially if Suh, Cameron Wake and Mario Williams can get the Pats tackles - even assuming Nate Solder returns to health - moving backwards.
The Texans, thanks to the efforts of Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt, were one of the best defensive teams in football in 2015. They finished the year ranked third in total defense, allowed just 310.2 yards per game and just 313 points (the same total as the Cardinals). Assuming another season of growth from players like cornerback Kevin Johnson and linebacker Bernardrick McKinney and with Whitney Mercilus coming off a 12-sack season, the Texans look like they'll be just as stout next year.
Bill O'Brien's knowledge of the Pats likely matters little here, but it certainly can't hurt. And with Brock Osweiler presumably upgrading the Texans offense, this may turn into a back-and-forth affair that Garoppolo simply isn't equipped to win.
Really, from this early vantage, the most winnable game for Garoppolo may be his final start against the Buffalo Bills.
Though the Bills boast a talented defense led by their young and still-ascending secondary - Stephone Gilmore, Ronald Darby - Rex Ryan's scheme didn't take in 2015. With Mario Williams gone and the changeover to Ryan's attacking 3-4 likely for another step forward in 2016 though, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Bills improve from their 19th-overall finish last year. Then again, Ryan's boisterous coaching style isn't everyone's cup of tea and it's entirely possible that it's run it's course in the NFL.
At the very least, it may be a bit of ill-advised personality overkill with his brother Rob, the guy who left the Saints in shambles, joining him on the Buffalo coaching staff.
Still, if the Bills manage to keep Tyrod Taylor happy and LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams healthy, they'll be tough to takedown for any team, let alone a Patriots squad led by a quarterback with 20 completions for 188 yards and one touchdown to his name.
Losing Brady, no matter how you cut it, is going to be difficult for the Pats to overcome. They've done it before, when Matt Cassel led the team to a 10-5 record and a postseason berth during that 2008 season.
It's entirely possible they can survive, and even thrive, like that again, even just for four games.
But it won't be easy. And if they do manage a 2-2 or 3-1 record, it probably won't be because of Garoppolo. It'll be because of a stout defense backed by a strong running game and hopefully, Garoppolo limiting his mistakes.
