Researchers say that Sakurajima volcano is due for a major explosion sometime in 2044. According to the Scientific Reports journal, a team of volcanologists have introduced a new model for forecasting Sakurajima's behavior. Many believe that this approach will lead to better prepare for natural disaster worldwide.
The peak, which is known for its small but daily eruptions, sits on the edge of Kyushu Island in Japan. Recent observations have unveiled that the mountain is predicted to spit hundreds of tons of sizzling rock, ash and lava.
This is not the primary attempt at anticipating Sakurajima's outbursts. A model developed in the 50s has presented a simple pen-and-paper calculation. The approach has operated under the assumption that the volcano's internal magma pool was spherical and the surface above flat. However, this model cannot be banked upon to determine the mountain's activity.
According to Dr. James Hickey, a volcanologist at University of Exeter and the study's lead author, the new model takes into account the unusual topography of the area immediately surrounding the volcano including the different properties of each layer of the earth's crust. From this context, forecasting Sakurajima's erratic behavior is closer to being accurate.
Sakurajima's last major eruption has occurred in 1914. The explosion, which killed 58 people, has caused considerable flooding and intense pyroclastic flow in the nearby city of Kagoshima. Lava outpour, which is unusual for Japanese volcanoes due to high silica content, has gone on for months.
Using a seismometer and GPS data, the team has found that the magma reservoir within the mountain grew at a considerable rate. Taking this development into consideration, it has been estimated that the next major burst will happen about 130 years after the previous one which means that eruption will be in 25 to 30 years.
The Sakurajima volcano is roughly 32 miles from the Sendai nuclear power plant. For the 600,000 residents at Kagoshima City, lava blast and plumes of ash are becoming a regular activity.
Researchers have found that magma, at around 14 million cubic meters annually, is being supplied to the volcano's system at a faster rate than it can be released through smaller and regular eruptions which is why observations indicate a growing potential for a larger burst within the next three decades.
