New research suggests the average global temperature could rise by a whopping four degrees Celsius by the year 2100.
If the current rate of carbon emissions are not reduced in the near future the global temperature could rise up to eight degrees Celsius by 2200. This prediction suggests our climate is more "sensitive" to carbon dioxide pollution than we thought it was, a University of New South Wales news release reported.
The study also gained insight into how cloud formation will effect future global warming.
"Our research has shown climate models indicating a low temperature response to a doubling of carbon dioxide from preindustrial times are not reproducing the correct processes that lead to cloud formation," lead author from the University of New South Wales' Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Prof Steven Sherwood, said in the news release.
"When the processes are correct in the climate models the level of climate sensitivity is far higher. Previously, estimates of the sensitivity of global temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide ranged from 1.5 [degrees Celsius] to [five degrees Celsius]. This new research takes away the lower end of climate sensitivity estimates, meaning that global average temperatures will increase by [three degrees Celsius] to [five degrees Celsius] with a doubling of carbon dioxide," Sherwood said.
The team looked at water vapor in the cloud formations in order to make their findings. When water vapor evaporates and moves through the atmosphere they either reach 15 kilometers (about nine miles) and form rainclouds or only reach a few kilometers without forming clouds.
When the updraughts move up only a few kilometers they reduce overall cloud cover because they "pull vapor away from" the clouds that are already forming. This phenomenon does not occur if the updraughts rise 15 kilometers.
Most climate models simulate all water vapor rising to 15 kilometers. This new model that does take the phenomenon into account found less clouds were formed. This increases the amount of sunlight that comes into the atmosphere which raises "sensitivity of our climate to carbon dioxide or any other perturbation."
"Climate sceptics like to criticize climate models for getting things wrong, and we are the first to admit they are not perfect, but what we are finding is that the mistakes are being made by those models which predict less warming, not those that predict more," Sherwood said.
"Rises in global average temperatures of this magnitude will have profound impacts on the world and the economies of many countries if we don't urgently start to curb our emissions," he said.
