Forecast given by the research and analysis division on of the Economist group of the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), who provides forecasts and advisories through research and analysis, suggests that the novel corronavirus will possibly infect 50 percent of the world's population, according to a report from CNBC, Wednesday.
According to the analysts from EIU, the assumption is that half of the 7.5 billion people in the world will be infected by the virus since it is expected to be a seasonal disease and that the number of cases has doubled in just two weeks. Moreover, it was also predicted that 20% of these cases may become severe and critical, but the fatality rate will only be around 1-3%.
Moreover, EIU analysts said that the death ratios of COVID-19 will be dependent on the capacity and efforts of countries on detection, tracking and containing the epidemic. They further added that death ratios are expected to be higher in countries that have challenges in their healthcare systems, like in the Sub-Saharan Africa regions.
Based on a major research in China that was published last month on the coronavirus, the overall fatality rate of the virus was calculated by scientists at 2.3%. While in Italy, the hardest hit country outside of Asia, the fatality rate is almost at 8% with 2,500 death recorded from 31,506 infections.
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Will COVID-19 be a seasonal disease?
Aside from this, the EIU also warned about the possibility that the coronavirus will become a seasonal disease and are anticipating a relapse of the outbreak by Winter of 2020-2021. It was also previously suggested by studies that the epidemic might subside when the hotter climate comes but may re-emerge when the weather becomes cooler.
They also noted that the vaccines may not be in the market at last by the end of the year. Whilst human trials have already began in the United States on Monday, and with several biotech moguls racing to develop an immunization for the dreaded virus, experts have warned that human trials need to be observed for more than 12 months before a vaccine can be proven safe and be rolled into the market.
Late in February, a U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) official said that there is a huge possibility for the virus to be seasonal, but it was immediately contradicted by the World Health Organization that said that it is too early to make such assumptions.
The former deputy governor at the Bank of England, John Gieve also suggested on Monday that the coronavirus will likely linger and stay with us permanently and something that we need to get used to over a period of years.
The EUI also predicted that the global growth would stand at 1% for 2020, as a result of the pandemic, which is lower from its 2.3% outlook in the early stages of the outbreak. This would also mark the lowest growth of the global gross domestic product (GDP) since the global financial crisis.
As humanity struggles against the coronavirus pandemic, confirmed COVID-19 cases have and has surpassed 200,000 around the globe. There are already more than 8,000 fatalities due to the virus worldwide based on data from Johns Hopkins University. But looking at the silver lining, there are already more than 82,00 people who have recovered.
