History professor Allan Lichtman who has predicted the results of Presidential Elections for decades has always been right. He has predicted the winner of each presidential race and he was right every single time since Ronald Reagan's reelection victory back in 1984.
Correct prediction
Professor Allan Lichtman says the reason why he can predict the winners correctly is that he uses the "13 keys" system.
In 2000, Professor Lichtman predicted that Al Gore would win the Presidential Election, although AL Gore won the popular vote, he lost the presidency to George W. Bush after the Supreme Court ruled to stop the recount of Florida's electoral votes.
Despite what happened in 2000, Professor Lichtman stands by the accuracy and validity of his Presidential Prediction. And now, Lichtman is ready to use his "13 keys" again for the Trump vs. Biden Presidential Election.
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Professor Lichtman had an interview with CNN and he gave a definitive answer. According to him, the keys predict that President Donald Trump will lose the White House this 2020 Presidential Election.
Professor Lichtman bases his prediction on a model of "13 keys" that is answerable by true or false for any given election. The "13 keys" in his system include factors such as the incumbency, the economy, the scandals, the social unrest as well as the personal charisma of the candidates.
Lichtman explained that the secret is keeping an eye on the big picture of incumbent strength and performance. He does not pay any attention to the polls, the ups and downs of the presidential campaign, and the pundits. He said that it is what the keys gauge, which is the big picture.
After the 2016 Presidential Elections, Americans have been wary of the prediction models since it was predicted that Trump would lose, but then he won in the end.
CNN's Editor at Large Chris Cillizza said in his political audio briefing that dismissing Lichtman's findings would be like sticking "your head in the proverbial sand."
When Lichtman was asked of the key model could be applied to something cataclysmic like the COVID-19 pandemic, the professor remained confident and said that prospectively and retrospectively, the 13 keys go all the way back to 1860. The keys are what is called a robust system so he does not fiddle with them.
The keys have lasted through different massive changes in US politics, in the US economy, and the country's democracy. He explained that the keys should not be fiddled with.
Even though Lichtman has been predicting the results of elections since 1982, he said that he still feels the same amount of pressure every four years. He said that he is now 73 years old and every time election comes around, he gets butterflies.
Trump's ratings
According to NBC News, President Trump's approval rating dropped 10 points from May to June among adults. The rating is according to the poll done by Gallup.
The new poll numbers show that President Trump's approval at 39% and disapproval at 57% is one of the largest dips in a single-month period for the president in Gallup's tracking. In May, Gallup showed President Trump's approval and disapproval ratings at almost 49% and 48% respectively.
