On November 30, 2020, the annual Horasis Asia meeting was hosted for the first time as a virtual summit via a digital conference platform. Over 400 participants joined to discuss current world issues, sharing insight into how specific events have influenced Asia's economic system.
Vijay Eswaran, Executive Chairman of the QI Group, Hong Kong, participated in a discussion with fellow panelists, Harry Hui, Founder and Managing Partner of ClearVue Partners, China; Gunjan Sinha, Chairman of MetricStream, USA; and Ron Somers, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of India First Group, USA. Chaired by Cod Satrusayang, Editor in Chief at Thai Enquirer, Thailand, the group discussed the potential impact of the new incoming US administration on the economic platform of Asian countries. In this article, we will take a closer look at how Eswaran predicts future changes surrounding the Biden administration will form and how they will influence the ASEAN community.
Trade Partnerships
The United States currently has hostile relationships with many countries regarding trade dealings. Under the Trump Administration, the US has been viewed as a combative party unwilling to participate in global trade agreements. In 2017, the US withdrew its signature from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP); the US had signed the deal on February 4, 2016. Then, in 2018, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)- recognized as the largest free trade agreement in history - concluded; however, again, the Trump administration withdrew from the deal. Trump established a wall through his reluctance to join the Asian nations in the trade partnerships mentioned above.
Eswaran spoke directly about the shifts we can anticipate under the Biden Administration. He predicts that instead of an administration focused on building walls, Biden will restructure the US political platform to focus on building bridges with Asian countries, setting up a coherent plan for trade.
"Basically, insofar as the RCEP is concerned and TPP, both are very powerful.Iin fact, the RCEP is the largest trade agreement of its kind. It has brought together the largest trade grouping in history, and for the US not to be part of it would be counterproductive. I can see why Trump would do what he did, but I would imagine that Biden would try to build bridges as opposed to walls. I mean, Trump is famous for his walls, one way or the other."
Specifically, Eswaran predicts that Biden will revitalize the trade relationship between China and the US, which has been decoupled under the Trump Administration. China is the biggest trading partner globally - "China has become the factory of the world," Eswaran points out. This is due to the infrastructure they have built across the globe. And today, there is much trepidation regarding the two nations' relationship; but Biden can change that. Realistically, he feels Biden will take a collaborative approach to establish effective trade agreements that benefit both parties.
Focus on India in Global Trade
Over the next four years, the trading platform around the world will experience significant shifts. Although many panelists focused their attention on China and shared insight into how the Trump Administration disrupted US trade with China, Eswaran redirected the conversation, focusing on how we can anticipate India's shift as a leading global trade market in the next administration.
Eswaran, as the leader of a global conglomerate and contributor to the World Economic Forum, has an in-depth understanding of the importance of such relationships. Eswaran's views on the importance of the India-China trade negotiations provide insight into what market shifts we can anticipate in the future.
Currently, India has limited its power due to a lack of supply chains across the world - China is now a leader in this. However, the ongoing reliance on e-commerce is proving to be an opportunistic time for India.
"India needs to open its borders. India needs to work on becoming a global trading partner that it wants to be now. If it wants to, it has to open up a dialogue, and ASEAN is right there on its doorstep. ASEAN is India's doorstep as much as it is China's."
According to Eswaran, India already has an advantage for its entry into Asian markets - in its ability to relate to its neighbors linguistically, culturally, traditionally, and even spiritually. Moving forward, they need to learn to build these bridges, focusing on improving their infrastructure, and they will become one of the most influential countries in supply chain.
ASEAN Trade
As trade agreements become more imperative, moving into a digitally-driven world, global relationships will need to remain in-place, identifying benefits and solutions for all countries involved. Moving into 2021, one of the most significant relationships that must be established is between India and China. As two of the most prominent manufacturers worldwide, their ability to collaboratively work together can prove to be beneficial to both. However, with a current restrained relationship, the group discussed how this could change moving forward.
Eswaran answered with one simple word - "Dialogue." To reestablish a stronger relationship, the two parties must engage in open and effective dialogue. Besides, a stronger bond between Asian countries can help form a more substantial negotiation block for the region, placing them in an optimal position to negotiate with the Biden Administration.
Creating A Sustainable Future
The goal of Horasis is to create a future that promotes sustainable growth. As a community of visionaries, members of their most recent panel provided strategic insight into how current global trends impact the world as a whole. The hope for the future, according to Vijay Eswaran, is that under the Biden Administration, the US will re-engage in placing global relations as a priority. Under the Trump Administration, the focus had been shifted to the US, with no foresight into how straining world relations would impact future trade. With eCommerce continuing to rise in popularity and relying on global supply chains, national relationships focused on developing a win-win situation for all parties are essential. The Biden Administration, one that is dedicated to reestablishing international relations, brings hope to ASEAN nations.
Read more about Vijay Eswaran's views on sustainability.
