Top US intelligence officials told Congress Tuesday that the US intelligence community believes China is actively seeking to construct a force capable of capturing Taiwan, despite US backing for the island.
During a hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines stated that the threat to Taiwan between now and 2030 is severe.
The US Believes China Wants To Avoid Military Conflict Over Taiwan
However, as Avril Haines and Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier of the Defense Intelligence Agency pointed out, the US does not yet know what lessons Chinese President Xi Jinping will draw from Russia's war in Ukraine and the aid that has poured to Kyiv. According to the two officials, how Xi and the Chinese Communist Party perceive the events of that crisis might affect their timing and strategy toward Taiwan.
According to Haines and Berrier, the US believes China would prefer to avoid a military clash over Taiwan if at all feasible. CIA Director Bill Burns said on Saturday that Russia's crisis in Ukraine had influenced China's calculations about how and when it would try to seize control of Taiwan.
China has been pressuring Taiwan militarily, including holding a military drill east of the island over the weekend and flying warplanes into its air defense identification zone this week. Taiwan is a self-governing island democracy that China claims is part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force for reunification.
The US recognizes China's claim to sovereignty over Taiwan under the one-China policy. However, US weaponry deliveries to Taiwan for self-defense, as well as President Joe Biden's and other US officials' public support for the island, have strained relations between the two countries.
As reported by the New York Times, the Biden administration is covertly pressuring Taiwan's government to acquire American-made weaponry such as missiles and small guns for asymmetric warfare, which it feels would be better suited to defend against a Chinese invasion.
A representative for the US State Department said Monday that strengthening Taiwan's defenses is a priority and that the most effective way to do so is to invest in asymmetric capabilities that are credible, durable, mobile, dispersed, and cost-efficient, CNN reported.
China Warns of Ukraine Style of Invasion in Taiwan
It's worth noting that Taiwan, formally the Republic of China, is an East Asian republic with China's ocean borders. It was once a part of China, but following a civil war, it was split into two self-governing entities: the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (RCC) (ROC).
Despite the separation, China's One China Policy considers Taiwan to be an important component of the country. Beijing would compel the democratic island to negotiate on its terms by 2027, according to a recent US assessment.
The US Department of Defense issued a report titled Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China in the first week of November, warning the Taiwanese government to take extra precautions in its territory.
If Taiwan, which recognizes itself as a sovereign, independent nation, declares independence, China's governing Communist Party has vowed to use force. China's foreign ministry adopted a harder tone against the West as Russia started an all-out invasion of Ukraine, repeating that Taiwan is not Ukraine.
The Chinese foreign ministry statement came after UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned that Beijing might invade Taiwan in the manner of Ukraine. Hua Chunying, a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry, denounced such provocations, claiming that Taiwan is not Ukraine, as per Republic World.
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