Fertilizer Shortage Could Cause Next Global Food Crisis: Why Is This Happening?

According to prominent Canadian energy expert Vaclav Smil, nitrogen fertilizer, the major element in the Green Revolution that powered the agricultural sector in the 1960s, is responsible for the survival of two-fifths of humankind - more than three billion people.

Nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K), the chemical fertilizer trifecta that quadrupled worldwide grain output, allowing the biggest human population boom the world has ever seen. It is now in limited supply, and farmers, fertilizer firms, and governments worldwide are fighting to prevent agricultural yields from plummeting.

Russia Exports Great Amount of World's Fertilizers

The invasion of Ukraine by Vladimir Putin was a body blow to an industry that numerous events had battered for more than a year. According to Rabobank experts, Russia regularly exports approximately 20% of the world's nitrogen fertilizers and 40% of the world's exported potassium when paired with its sanctioned border Belarus. Because of Western sanctions and Russia's new fertilizer export limitations, much of that is now off-limits to the world's farmers.

High fertilizer costs have resulted in a rush on manure in many regions of the country as farmers look for alternatives and ways to reduce their fertilizer expenditures. That may not be a terrible thing, according to Antonio Mallarino, a soil scientist and plant nutrient expert at Iowa State University who has spent decades trying to convince farmers to avoid overfertilizing.

Even though corn prices broke $8 a bushel in February, close to the all-time high set in 2012, many farmers are shifting to soybeans, which require fewer nutrients and hence require less fertilizer. According to the USDA's planting survey, which was issued on March 31, farmers expect to plant a record 91 million acres of soybeans this year, a 4% increase over last year, while corn acres declined to 89.5 million acres, the lowest in five years, National Geographic reported.

Russia-Ukraine War Impact Global Fertilizer, Food Supplies

Fertilizer expenditures account for around 15% of overall cash costs for US farmers, with prices virtually doubling between the summer of 2020 and the end of 2021. The growing cost of doing business is being passed on to consumers via the food supply chain, while prices have been rising because to supply chain interruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. But the situation is more complicated than that.

Soaring fertilizer costs are driving up demand for food staples like wheat and corn, while the crisis in Ukraine is hurting the supply of both. Russia and Belarus have produced over 40% of worldwide potash exports. Saskatchewan, Canada's prairie province, is the world's largest producer.

However, since Russia was sanctioned for its continuing invasion of Ukraine, that proportion has decreased. Furthermore, Belaruskali, the world's second-largest potash producer, was sanctioned by the US in August following a disputed presidential election in which President Alexander Lukashenko declared victory.

Russia and Ukraine export 28 percent of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers, respectively. Ukraine is also consistently one of the top three grain exporters in the world and is often referred to as the Breadbasket of Europe in media reports. The country is responsible for 13% of worldwide corn exports. However, nearly three months of fighting have reduced overall grain shipments by 500,000 tons per month. This figure is only anticipated to climb if food commodity inflation continues.

As a result, the Biden administration seeks to save the farm business. In March, the Department of Agriculture pledged $250 million in funding to help American farmers confront rising fertilizer costs.

On Wednesday, Biden announced further initiatives to mitigate the price increase, including tripling the original $250 million set aside in March for fertilizer production. An increase in the number of counties eligible for double cropping insurance is included in the aid package.

Farmers can increase yield by planting a second crop on the same land in the same year by double cropping. However, due to the dangers, farmers are frequently unable to insure the second crop.

The administration is also attempting to expand the use of technical applications, such as "precision agriculture" approaches to assist farmers with fertilizer management. Such measures lower the quantity of fertilizer required, according to UPI.