Europeans are fearing a potentially long and cold winter season as Russia continues to cut off its natural gas supply to the region as international tensions continue to rise over the invasion of Ukraine.
The situation comes as Europe is currently experiencing scorching heat waves as leaders are trying to secure new gas suppliers to ensure the heating stays on this coming winter. Analysts have warned that new gas sources will not solve the problem, which means Europeans may have no choice but to cut their energy consumption.
Supply of Natural Gas in Europe
Europeans can soon expect to be urged to restrain their use of air conditioning amid the searing heat so that they can keep warm this coming winter. Last week, French President Emmanuel Macron warned of a "scenario where we have to manage completely without Russian gas" due to Moscow taking advantage of it as a "weapon of war."
The issue became acute in mid-June when Russia's state-run energy firm Gazprom opted to cut gas supplies in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to only 40% of capacity. The pipeline is a crucial source of Russian gas to Germany that flows through the Baltic Sea, as per France24.
The crisis comes as Germany still gets 35% of its gas from Russia, which is a decrease from the 55% before Russia's war on Ukraine. On the other hand, France is less dependent on Moscow but still relatively exposed, with 17% of its gas coming from Russia.
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Russia has already opted to stop sending gas supplies to Finland, Poland, and Bulgaria over their refusal to pay in rubles. Now, there is a very "strong risk" that Moscow will continue with the same strategy across the continent and cut off gas supplies completely before the winter season, warned Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow in economics and trade at the German Marshall Fund Brussels bureau.
According to Reuters, Gazprom put out a statement telling its customers in Europe that it cannot guarantee gas supplies because of "extraordinary circumstances." The company's letter said that it was retroactively declaring force majeure on supplies from June 14.
Cutting Off Gas Flow
The company's letter added to fears circulating in Europe that Moscow may not restart the pipeline at the end of the maintenance period in retaliation for sanctions imposed on Russia. Force majeure, which is known as an "act of God," is standard in business contracts and defines extreme circumstances that release a party from their legal obligations.
Gazprom's declaration does not necessarily mean that it would stop deliveries, rather that it should not be held responsible if it fails to meet contract terms. Russian gas supplies have been on the decline via major routes for several months due to the invasion of Ukraine and sanctions.
Berlin officials have already declared a "gas crisis" and triggered an emergency energy plan in response to dwindling supplies. Landlords, schools, and municipalities have begun to lower their thermostats to conserve energy. They have also started to ration hot water, close swimming pools, turn off air-conditioners, dim streetlights, and exhort the benefits of cold showers, the New York Times reported.
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