UK Could Face Another COVID-19 Wave; What Does It Mean for the US?

Health experts predict that the United Kingdom is entering a COVID-19 wave this autumn, and the United States may soon follow.

The recent surge in COVID-19 infections in England does not seem to be driven by a novel coronavirus variant, per a CNN report.

According to Dr. Tim Spector, professor of genetic epidemiology at Kings College London, typically, the US responds to circumstances in the UK around a month later.

Dr. Spector leads the Zoe Health Study, which utilizes an app to collect UK and US symptom reports. Participants take a home COVID-19 test kit if they feel sick and note the findings. He estimates that 500,000 individuals register their symptoms daily to study pandemic patterns.

Spector claims the study has properly tracked the onset of each wave since the initial lockdown in England in 2020.

COVID-19 Wave Expected This October

Sky News reported that, for the first time in two months, COVID-19 cases have increased in England and Wales, ending a steady decline that began in early July.

Total infections in the UK have risen, while in Scotland and Northern Ireland, they have declined.

According to the Office for National Statistics, 927,900 people living in private homes nationwide are most likely to have tested positive for COVID-19 in the week ending September 14. The figure is five percent more than the previous week's 881,200.

Dr. Spector claims data shows the next COVID-19 wave has already started.

The health expert claimed projections indicated that there "would have a peak in June to July, followed by a month of inactivity in August, a flattening off in September, and a resumption in October." And it quite fits what the modelers had foreseen.

According to some projections, COVID-19 cases will start to climb again in the US in October and carry on into the winter.

Since a few months ago, public health authorities, like the World Health Organization, have issued warnings about the potential increase in COVID-19 cases this cold season, according to Politico. The burden on health services is a problem, especially during the flu season.

Susan Hopkins, chief medical advisor at the U.K. Health Security Agency noted: "While COVID-19 rates are still low, the latest data for the last seven days indicates a rise in hospitalizations and a rise in positive tests reported from the community."

Hopkins advised qualified people to get their autumn vaccination booster as soon as possible to strengthen their resistance to infection in time for the winter.

Declining Immunity, a Crucial Factor

Christina Pagel, a professor of operational research at University College London, believes that a mix of declining immunity and behavioral changes is to blame for the rise in cases in the UK rather than new varieties.

Several people in the UK are some months over their last COVID-19 dose or infection, and official records reveal that just 8% of individuals aged 50 and older have acquired an Omicron-specific vaccine since September.

Immunity is declining in the US, and Americans are sluggish to get booster shots. CDC data show that only 35 percent of people who should have received a booster have obtained one.

The US and UK boosters are somewhat different. The initial strain of Omicron, which is no longer prevalent, is being fought in the UK with vaccinations that have been upgraded.

US boosters have been modified to combat the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants, that are presently infecting people both domestically and overseas.