US Midterm Elections Update: Race for Congress Remains Tight; Here's the Results' Possible Effect on 2024 Presidential Election

The 2022 US midterm elections dragged on into the night without a definite indication of Congressional control despite considerable voter dissatisfaction and frustration, particularly about the economy.

The battles for control of the Senate were in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, with Georgia's potentially crucial race set for a runoff.

Midterm Elections: Red Wave Has Not Arrived

Control of the House also remained up in the air as states carried on with the counting of ballots in crucial swing districts. As the party of the current president has lost seats in the House in all but three midterm elections over the previous century, political history did not favor the Democrats.

Voters were widely split by gender, educational level, and community type in this election as in prior ones. Men supported Republican congressional candidates by 10 percentage points, while women switched to the Democratic Party (+4 points).

Republicans gained support from non-college voters (+10 points) and rural residents (+28 points), while Democrats gained support from college graduates (+9 points) and city dwellers (+30 points).

The biggest election issues are highlighted in the Fox News Voter Analysis (FNVA), a countrywide survey of more than 90,000 people. Republicans received solid base support, especially from rural voters, White evangelicals, Whites without college degrees, and conservatives.

Compared to the 2020 election, the majority of demographic categories moved to the right. Groups that supported Biden two years ago underwent some of the most significant changes, as per Fox News.

Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) beat her Republican opponent Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, while Sen. John Fetterman defeated Republican Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, giving Democrats control of a Senate seat that had previously been controlled by the GOP.

However, as election officials around the nation began to tally votes, control of both chambers of Congress remained up for grabs. Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) is narrowly ahead of former NFL player Herschel Walker in Georgia, but he is still short of the required 50 percent of the vote to avoid a runoff. The vote will move to a second round on December 6 if neither candidate receives a majority of the vote on Tuesday.

Sens. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) are now leading their Republican challengers in Arizona and Nevada, respectively, but their victories are still far from certain. However, it was obvious as of Wednesday morning that the so-called "red wave" that Republicans had been predicting for months had thus far not arrived, as per The Hill.

Although the GOP still seems to be on pace to at least win the five seats necessary to regain the majority in the House, some members of the party started to question the idea of an electoral landslide.

Longtime favorites to regain control of the House are the Republicans. The party in power, in this case, the Democrats, typically always loses territory in Congress in midterm elections, so not only was the party projected to gain up a few seats solely as a result of the decennial redistricting process.

And in the run-up to election day, people were prepared to hold Democrats accountable for the major problems facing the country, such as persistently high prices and a perceived increase in crime. Meanwhile, it was always anticipated that the battle for control of the Senate would be closer. Republicans are defending more ground than Democrats, even though they only need to gain one seat this year to regain the majority.

US Midterm Election Results' Effect

As the results of the 2022 midterm elections were being counted on Tuesday and Wednesday, focus also shifted to November 5, 2024, the date of the next presidential election. Who runs in 2024 is likely to be significantly influenced by who controls Congress and state legislatures around the country, as per Washington Post via MSN.

Brian J. Gaines, a political science professor at the University of Illinois, stated that midterm elections "cast shadows on succeeding presidential campaigns primarily when they flip power of at least one chamber of Congress." Currently, the Democratic Party is in charge of the Senate, the House, and the presidency.

Historically, the president's party loses seats in the midterm elections, and the president is blamed for any problems the country is now experiencing. But as as early Wednesday, it was uncertain who would control Congress. Gaines added that for Biden to be in the best political position for 2024, Republicans would need to win control of Congress.

He referenced the fact that past presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were reelected after the Democrats lost the midterm elections, stressing that they were able to defend themselves even as they exposed "fellow partisans."

Gaines stated that he thought Biden, who takes himself in being a shrewd negotiator, may find it difficult to safeguard his own electoral chances if he had to cooperate with a Republican-controlled Congress, whether it be partially or entirely. He also said that he was unsure that Joe Biden would be the Democratic nominee in 2024. "If Joe Biden is running for reelection in 2024, I doubt that he would be able to repeat the Clinton and Obama trick of shifting criticism," he stated.