COVID-19 Cases in China: 1 Million Deaths Predicted After Sudden Policy Change

COVID-19 cases in China have continued to skyrocket after a sudden policy change related to the Asian nation's strict "zero-COVID" protocols. A study anticipates the country to experience 1 million deaths.

In the last three years, the Chinese government has utilized strict lockdowns, centralized quarantines, mass testing, and rigorous contact tracing to prevent the coronavirus from spreading too widely among its population.

China's COVID-19 Situation

Earlier this month, Chinese authorities abandoned that costly strategy following violent, widespread protests against the stringent restrictions that have upended businesses and people's daily lives.

However, experts have warned that the Asian nation was poorly prepared for such a drastic and sudden shift in policy. China has fallen short of boosting the elderly vaccination rate, upping surge and intensive care capacity in hospitals, and stockpiling antiviral medications.

Projections by three professors at the University of Hong Kong noted that under the current conditions in China, a nationwide reopening could lead to up to 684 deaths per million people. With the country's roughly 1.4 billion people, the deaths could rise to 964,400, as per CNN.

A research paper released last week on the Medrxiv preprint server that has yet to be peer-reviewed claimed that the surge of infections resulting from the policy change would "likely overload many local health systems across the country."

The study noted that simultaneously lifting COVID-19 restrictions in all provinces would result in hospitalization demands 1.5 to 2.5 times of surge in hospital capacity. Furthermore, the worst-case scenario could be avoided if Chinese authorities rapidly rolled out booster shots and antiviral drugs.

According to Inquirer, the situation comes after Chinese officials reported the first COVID-related deaths on Monday in the country since the lifting of coronavirus protocols. The deaths have fueled anxiety that it is the start of a grim trend as the virus spreads through the country.

Lifting of Zero-COVID Policies

The two deaths reported on Monday were the first to be acknowledged by the National Health Commission (NHC) since Dec. 3. They came only days before Beijing announced that it was lifting curbs that essentially kept the virus in check for three years, but that resulted in nationwide protests last month.

A journalist in Beijing saw hearses bearing dead lining the driveway to a designated COVID-19 crematorium on Saturday. There were roughly 20 yellow body bags that contained corpses on the floor of an adjacent funeral parlor. However, it was not immediately determined whether the deaths were related to the coronavirus.

China has recorded only 5,237 COVID-related deaths during the health crisis, including the latest two fatalities. It is a tiny fraction of the country's massive 1.4 billion population.

A prominent doctor, Zhang Wenhong, warned that China's medical institutions will face their "darkest hour within the next month." The remarks come as the virus has continued to spread throughout the Asian nation.

Amid the chaos, medical staff is falling sick in droves, reducing the workforce that is already strained in trying to address the surge of patients, the Economist reported.