Russia has secretly repealed a law that exempted fathers with three or more children from conscription because of concern that President Vladimir Putin may send an additional 500,000 conscripts to Ukraine.
MPs are rumored to have presented legislation that would grant the National Guard additional authority to enforce military draft orders. A second proposal would authorize the confiscation of property from individuals who left the country to avoid being conscripted.
Russia Mobilization Plans
In September, after Putin announced the mobilization of 300,000 reservists, hundreds of desperate Russians began attempting to flee the country, Daily Mail reported. According to The Telegraph, the office of Moscow's mayor is now reportedly hiring more personnel to manage conscription, and some city officials have had their vacations canceled.
In addition, social media speculations about martial law in the country have contributed to the propagation of fear. Putin told workers at a military-industrial unit in St. Petersburg this week that they are exempt from a call-up, implying that a second mobilization may be imminent despite the Kremlin's refusal to revoke the exemption.
Initially, the Kremlin anticipated that the battle would only last a few days. However, a new mobilization wave could extend the conflict. If Russia announces another wave of mobilization and expands its armed forces, the conflict in Ukraine will persist for years, according to Konrad Muzyka, the head of defense consultant Rochan.
Many of the 320,000 conscripts who were deployed to the battlefield in September are now thought dead, and Moscow is reportedly mindful of the political consequences such a choice could entail.
A close confidant of Putin warned today that the delivery of weapons to Kyiv that threaten Russia will result in a global catastrophe and render arguments against the use of mass destruction weapons impossible.
Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of the Duma, the lower chamber of the Russian parliament, warned that the United States and NATO's support for Ukraine are bringing the world to an awful war. Last week, Western allies promised Ukraine weaponry worth billions of dollars.
However, they were unable to convince Germany to waive a ban on delivering its Leopard 2 battle tanks, which are owned by several NATO members but whose transfer to Ukraine required Berlin's consent. Since its invasion on February 24, 2014, which it has portrayed as self-defense against an invading West, Russia has seized control of portions of Ukraine and stated that it will never give them back.
However, Kyiv has stated that the restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity is not negotiable. The previous week, Russia's former prime minister and president, Dmitry Medvedev, made a similar threat. In addition, Russian lawmakers have proposed a measure that would give the National Guard more authority to enforce the military draft and another that would allow them to confiscate the property of Russians who fled overseas.
Multiple Russian areas have reportedly claimed that commissars have been tasked with compiling lists of males of fighting age, which could be another indication of an impending mobilization. According to reports from Russia, industrial managers have also been asked which employees they can give to the army.
The operations resemble what transpired during Putin's first mobilization, when, immediately after Putin's call to arms in October, he passed laws expanding the number of people who can be mobilized. After several months of fighting in Ukraine, Russia called for the partial mobilization of 300,000 military reservists in September 2022, the first time the country had done so since World War II, as per Daily Express.
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Russia-Ukraine War Update
According to the Russian human rights organization OVD-info, more than 750 individuals were arrested as a result of the announcement's unpopularity among certain Russians. Novaya Gazeta, an exiled Russian publication noted for its critical coverage of Vladimir Putin, said up to one million Russian men might be mobilized per Kremlin edict.
Now, it has been claimed that the mayor's office in Moscow is employing additional personnel to deal with new conscription and that some civil officials' vacations have been canceled. It has also been rumored that Russia intends to prolong the length of conscripts' national service from 12 to 24 months to have them fight in Ukraine, a move that could spark a reaction among Russians.
Professor Mark Galeotti, a Russian analyst, has stated that he believes Vladimir Putin is aware of the political cost of everything he does, as well as the political repercussions of employing conscripts, given the majority of them are "teens" serving national service.
In addition, Norway's army chief estimates that about 180,000 Russians have been killed or wounded throughout the conflict in Ukraine, compared to 100,000 military casualties and 30,000 civilian deaths among the Ukrainians.
General Eirik Kristoffersen, the head of the Norwegian armed forces, stated in an interview with TV2 that the number of killed and wounded Russian soldiers is beginning to surpass 180,000, though he did not clarify how he arrived at the figure, as per ABC.net.
Since 1949, Norway, a country that borders Russia, has been a member of NATO. In November, the chairman of the US army's joint chiefs of staff, Mark Milley, stated that the Russian army had suffered over 100,000 casualties and that the Ukrainian side had "probably" sustained a similar toll.
These numbers cannot be independently confirmed, and Moscow and Kyiv have not supplied credible accounts of their losses for months. General Kristoffersen stated on Sunday that despite huge losses, Russia can sustain [this war] for quite some time, citing Moscow's mobilization and arms-production capabilities.
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