Ukraine War Leaked Classified Documents: Theories and More

Pentagon leaked documents reveal what the US has learned about Russian intentions and operations
Ukraine may no longer be able to defend the front lines at the end of May
The United States is tuning in on Ukraine's senior military and political leaders

On Saturday, a senior US official stated that classified documents about Ukraine's war effort that appeared online are likely authentic and resulted from a breach but that some of the documents may have been altered before their posting.

A government official characterized this as the "working theory" pending investigation and evaluation.

Russia-Ukraine War Documents Spark Theories

The documents, posted as photos on Twitter and Telegram in recent days, describe Ukraine's military strength, the state of the conflict, casualty figures, and the firing rate for the HIMARS long-range missile systems that the United States supplied to Ukraine.

The documents appear to disclose what the United States has learned about Russian intentions and operations through signals intelligence - intercepted electronic communications. Per NBC News, a former US intelligence official stated that the exposure of a stream of signals intelligence on Russia could have severe consequences.

According to Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and senior military and security officials met on Friday to discuss methods to prevent the leak of military information. A researcher from the online investigative organization Bellingcat said the documents first surfaced on the anonymous image forum 4chan in March.

Since then, various versions of the documents have surfaced online, each citing a different number of Russian casualties during the conflict. The varying versions of the documents and the fact that the casualty estimates are significantly lower than those of independent military analysts and the Pentagon have fueled rumors that the documents have been altered.

In one version, the number of Russian troops slain in combat was estimated to be between 16,000 and 17,500, while the number of Ukrainian soldiers allegedly killed was 71,500.

In November, Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, stated that approximately 100,000 Russian personnel had been slain or wounded in the conflict and that Ukraine presumably suffered comparable casualties.

The documents, including maps and equipment inventories, appear to have been folded and flattened. According to one of the disclosed Pentagon documents, Ukraine's air defense may only be able to defend the front lines at the end of May, as reported by the Washington Post.

One of the documents included a February assessment from the Defense Department's Joint Staff that stated Ukraine's "ability to provide medium-range air defense to secure the [front lines will be utterly diminished by May 23."

Once Ukraine's first layer of defense munitions runs out, the second and third-layer expenditure rates will increase, reducing the country's ability to defend against Russian aerial attacks at all altitudes, according to the alleged classified document.

Both the Department of Justice and the Department of Defense investigated the apparent breach of classified documents after Russian sources posted them on social media platforms such as Twitter.

Pentagon Leaked Documents Detail Ukraine's Shortcomings

The documents are dated March or earlier this year and contain information on Ukrainian training, munitions expenditures, and estimated Ukrainian and Russian casualties. According to the documents, no preparations for a Ukrainian counteroffensive are expected this spring.

Another document indicates how rapidly Ukraine's air defense projectiles will be depleted, stating that SA-11 systems will be depleted by April 13, NASAMs made in the United States will be depleted by April 15, and SA-8s will be depleted by May.

In light of the anticipated shortfalls, the Ukrainian air defense should focus on Russian aircraft and helicopters and disregard smaller threats, such as drones. According to The New York Times, the trove of documents contains a report on the state of combat in Bakhmut, a city in the eastern Donetsk region of Ukraine that has been under siege for seven months.

The documents appear to indicate that the United States is eavesdropping on Ukraine's senior military and political leaders. The Times reported that the document detailed how, as of February 25, Ukrainian forces "were almost operationally encircled by Russian forces in Bakhmut."

General Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine's director of military intelligence at the time of the report, described the ongoing battle for Bakhmut as "catastrophic," according to the documents. Advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's chief of staff Andriy Yermak, Roman Mashovets, stated that the Ukrainian forces' esteem in Bakhmut was low.