Taiwan Invasion: What Will Happen if China Attacks Taipei?

China appears to be preparing for warfare against Taiwan
Official ensures readiness of Taiwan military
US officials speculate that China may invade Taiwan by 2027

Last week, after Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen visited the United States and met briefly with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California, China responded predictably with a show of force in the Taiwan Strait.

During three days of military exercises, China's fighter jets, naval vessels, and even an aircraft carrier conducted what Beijing termed "simulated precision attacks," which served as a dress rehearsal for a military encirclement of the island state that could one day result in an invasion.

Taiwan Expresses Concern Over China's Aggression

After the exercises concluded, China's military declared it was ready to "smash 'Taiwanese independence' separatism and external meddling in any form." According to Fox News, a Chinese blockade of Taiwan could have global repercussions and cause market disruptions.

Even trade with Japan, South Korea, and Australia could be crippled. Not to mention what a conflict could entail if North Korea, a Chinese ally, were to act provocatively toward its neighbors. Bipartisan legislators want US Congress to expedite Taiwan's receipt of the $19 billion worth of armaments it purchased from the United States. However, the US still needs to fulfill the order.

The top diplomat of Taiwan has expressed concern that China's recent military exercises around Taiwan could be a prelude to conflict. In an interview with CNN, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu expressed concern about China's increasing aggression towards Taiwan.

"Based on their military exercises and rhetoric, they appear to be preparing to launch a conflict against Taiwan," Wu said.

Wu stated that the Taiwanese government condemned China's recent military activities across the Taiwan Strait as unacceptable. The foreign minister expressed confidence in Taiwan's military's ability to defend the island when asked if Taiwan has any sense of when China might launch an attack.

Several US officials have recently suggested that China is preparing for a possible large-scale attack on the island. William Burns, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), cautioned that a US intelligence report indicated that Chinese President Xi Jinping had already instructed the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to prepare for a potential invasion of Taiwan by 2027.

However, Burns emphasized that this does not necessarily imply that Xi has already decided to attack the self-governing island in 2027. General Mike Minihan, the director of the Air Force's Air Mobility Command and a four-star general, also indicated that China could attack Taiwan in 2025 while the United States is in the midst of a presidential election.

In January, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin downplayed rumors that China would soon attack Taiwan. Recently, tensions between China and Taiwan flared up again following Beijing's three-day large-scale military exercises across the Taiwan Strait.

The Chinese military exercises, dubbed "Joint Sword," simulated multiple scenarios, such as isolating Taiwan and striking critical targets on the island.

Will China Invade Taiwan?

According to the PLA's Eastern Theatre Command, China mobilized its aircraft, naval ships, and military personnel in the "maritime areas and air space" surrounding Taiwan. During the military exercises, tens of Chinese warplanes violated Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ), prompting the island to respond with fighter jets and naval vessels.

China's President Xi Jinping has gone further than his predecessors in stating that Taiwan will be returned to the People's Republic of China by any means necessary. President Joe Biden has repeatedly said that the United States would come to Taiwan's aid if China attacked. However, representatives from his administration have distanced themselves from some of his previous statements.

Per Yahoo, it would be irresponsible to disregard China's provocations for several reasons. Accidents are possible with this volume of hostile hardware traveling through confined air and water channels. Any incident that increases the likelihood of direct armed conflict between Earth's two most powerful nations must be taken seriously.

Also, China's actions are merely dress rehearsal. China will not demonstrate how Taiwan, the United States, or anyone else would launch a full blockade or invasion of Taiwan; however, China's armed forces find it extremely beneficial to train in this manner.

Since the brief conflict with Vietnam in 1979, the Chinese military has not engaged in a gun war. Next year, Taiwan will finally conduct national elections. Though China's most recent intimidation may not lead to armed conflict soon, it may influence how Taiwanese electors envision the future.

Despite these factors, the probability of an imminent Chinese military attack against Taiwan remains low. When top-level US and Taiwanese officials meet face-to-face, Beijing always displays its military might. Speaker McCarthy's visit with Taiwan's president is the highest-level US-Taiwan meeting on US soil since 1979.

However, China's latest response was less militarily threatening than its response to then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan last summer, and Beijing is well aware that Washington will notice.