Sudan Crisis: Warring Generals Agree to 7-Day Ceasefire as Tensions Spark Fresh Wave of Refugees

South Sudan announced the warring military factions of Sudan have agreed to a one-week cease-fire
The United Nations reports that 100,000 people have fled Sudan for safety
Cairo would provide support for dialogue between rival factions in Sudan

The belligerent factions of Sudan have agreed in principle to a seven-day ceasefire beginning on Thursday, the neighboring country of South Sudan announced.

In a statement released Tuesday by the South Sudanese foreign ministry, which had offered to mediate the conflict, President Salva Kiir emphasized the significance of a longer ceasefire and the appointment of envoys to peace talks, to which both parties had consented.

Sudan's Military Factions Agree to Weeklong Ceasefire

General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of the Sudanese army, and General Mohamed Hamdan "Hemedti" Dagalo, the leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), reportedly reached a ceasefire agreement on May 4-11, but its integrity was questionable due to the rampant violations that undermined previous 24- to 72-hour agreements.

Both parties have consented to a ceasefire and will not fire unless they are fired upon, or military movements are observed, Aljazeera reported. The war in Sudan has forced 100,000 people to evacuate across its frontiers, and the violence, now in its third week, has created a humanitarian crisis.

As Sudan's neighbors deal with a refugee crisis and violence impedes aid delivery in a country where two-thirds of the population is already dependent on foreign assistance, the conflict risks escalating into a larger catastrophe.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi stated that Cairo would support dialogue between rival factions in Sudan but avoid interfering in their internal affairs.

Despite having consented to a new cease-fire, the commanders of the army and RSF, who had shared authority as part of a transition to free elections and a civilian government supported internationally, have yet to show definitive signs of retreat.

But neither seems capable of achieving a swift victory. This has elevated the possibility of a protracted conflict involving other nations, as per VOA News.

In addition to the 100,000 people who have fled the country, the United Nations migration agency reported in Geneva that at least 334,000 people have been internally displaced in Sudan since deadly combat broke out last month between two military factions.

The new figures were released a day after the UN refugee agency issued a dire forecast that the conflict could force more than 800,000 people to abandon the northeastern African nation.

Raouf Mazou, the deputy director of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, stated on Monday that the agency was preparing for 815,500 Sudanese to evacuate to seven neighboring countries. He stated that 580,000 Sudanese and foreign refugees currently reside in Sudan.

Monday, Filippo Grandi, the head of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), tweeted that he hoped the agency's planning estimates would prove to be too high but that "if violence does not cease, more people will be compelled to escape Sudan in search of safety."

Meanwhile, White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre stated that humanitarian organizations must be granted access to Sudan to assist the people there. UN officials stated that UN aid chief Martin Griffiths planned to visit Sudan on Tuesday, but the exact date and time had yet to be confirmed.

The World Food Programme of the United Nations announced on Monday that it was resuming operations in the safer regions of the country, following a pause during the conflict during which some WFP staff were slain.

The commanders of the army and RSF, who had shared power as part of a transition to free elections and civilian government supported by the international community, showed no sign of backing down. Still, neither appears capable of achieving a fast victory.

This has raised the possibility of a protracted conflict involving foreign powers. In the meantime, the United Kingdom announced on Tuesday that British citizens wishing to flee Sudan should travel to Port Sudan, where additional flights are anticipated to depart the country on May 3.

The United Nations has also been pushing for peace negotiations, and a spokesman for the organization, Farhan Haq, was circumspect regarding South Sudan's statement on Tuesday.

Sudan Refugees, Returnees Urge to Flee

According to NY Times, the violence has continued despite previous ceasefires and threatens to destabilize the region. United Nations agencies reported on Tuesday that more than 300,000 people have been internally displaced, in addition to the more than 100,000 who have escaped, primarily to Chad, South Sudan, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the Central African Republic.

Thousands of foreign nationals have fled the country as Western powers evacuated their citizens, while thousands of local families have risked perilous voyages from the capital Khartoum after being abandoned.

With water, food, medication, and electricity shortages heightening the risk of a humanitarian crisis and relief organizations prioritizing the distribution of medical aid to hospitals engulfed in the conflict, many locals remain confined in their homes.

Per CNN, the violence erupted in West Darfur last week, and attacks on civilians in El Geneina continued through Tuesday. Both contending generals, Burhan and Dagalo, have a history in the region, having played important roles in the region's counterinsurgency against insurgents during the 2003 civil war.

Burhan commanded the Sudanese army in Darfur, whereas Dagalo led one of the numerous Arab militias, the Janjaweed, responsible for human rights violations and atrocities.

Food, water, and medical supply shortages exist, and most hospitals are inoperable or damaged. Fuel is only available on the black market, compelling many individuals to forsake their vehicles and flee on foot.

Persons previously displaced by the protracted unresolved conflict in Darfur and refugees from other regional conflicts as far away as Syria and Yemen have been displaced again, some for the second, third, or fourth time, according to Schembri. Several displaced NRC volunteers have also been affected by the conflict.

Since April 20, at least 94 persons have been murdered in the West Darfur city of El Geneina, according to a statement released by the Sudanese Doctors' Union on Tuesday.