Southeast Asia's top diplomats will convene in Indonesia on Tuesday amidst mounting pressure to address a violent political crisis in Myanmar and defuse tensions in the South China Sea, where some ASEAN members have territorial claims that coincide with those of China.
The meeting of the foreign ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) occurs at a time when doubts about the bloc's credibility and cohesion in addressing the region's most difficult challenges are growing.
ASEAN Meeting's Top Agenda
The lack of substantive progress on an ASEAN peace plan for Myanmar, which was agreed to with the country's military authorities after they seized power in a coup in 2021 and calls for an urgent cessation to violence, is the most significant of these factors.
In the military's assault on dissent, more than 3,400 people have been murdered and nearly 22,000 have been arrested, according to a United Nations report published in June. The High Commissioner for Human Rights of the United Nations, Volker Turk, recently urged the United Nations Security Council to refer the escalating violence to the International Criminal Court and for countries to cease supplying the junta with weapons.
ASEAN has prohibited Myanmar's junta leaders from attending high-level meetings such as the one in Jakarta this week, but Indonesia, as the bloc's chair this year, has been engaging the junta and opposition groups intensively in secret.
However, according to two sources familiar with the efforts, attempts to create an inclusive dialogue have been hampered by conditions proposed by all parties in order to begin even informal discussions.
Per Reuters via MSN, Indonesia also seeks to expedite discussions on a long-stalled code of conduct for the South China Sea during this week's forum. The talks would advance the bloc's and China's 2002 commitment to establish a set of norms to assure freedom of navigation and overflight in the strategic waterway.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the US-China rivalry will also be discussed as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang participate as dialogue partners of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations foreign ministers in Jakarta, Indonesia.
Sidharto Suryodipuro, an official from the Indonesian Foreign Ministry, told a news conference on Monday that North Korea's foreign minister, Choe Son Hui, will not attend the Asean Regional Forum, an annual security meeting.
In addition, it is unknown which key figures from the world's most intractable conflicts will convene on the margins of the ministerial meetings. Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam's senior diplomats will convene on Tuesday and Wednesday before their Asian and Western counterparts join them on Thursday and Friday for discussions.
The often unwieldy group of democracies, autocracies, and monarchies, which was founded in 1967, has been held together for decades by the fundamental principles of non-interference in each other's domestic affairs and consensus-based decision-making.
However, this approach has hindered the 10-nation bloc's ability to respond promptly to cross-border crises. Since Myanmar's army usurped power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021 and plunged the country into deadly disorder, Asean's principles have been put to the test.
Since the military seizure, more than 3,750 civilians, including pro-democracy activists, have been slain by security forces, and nearly 24,000 have been arrested, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, a rights organization that tracks such arrests and deaths.
According to The Sun Star, ASEAN is under international pressure to resolve Myanmar's crisis effectively. However, ASEAN members appear divided on how to proceed, with some recommending that Myanmar's top diplomat and officials be invited back to the high-level summit meetings and punitive measures against Myanmar's generals be eased.
Retno emphasized that the group would remain committed to implementing the Asean leaders' five-point plan. Myanmar remained unmentioned in a draft of the Asean foreign ministers' post-meeting communique, reflecting the difficulty of reaching consensus on the issue.
Dispute About South China Sea
The Associated Press obtained a copy of the draft in which their concerns about other contentious issues, such as the South China Sea disputes, were included.
Given ASEAN's limited capacity to resolve it, Dewi Fortuna Anwar, director of the Jakarta-based think tank Habibie Center, predicted that the situation in Myanmar could become a long-term issue similar to the South China Sea disputes. She stated that the bloc should attempt to persuade the military government of Myanmar that it has superior options.
Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam are embroiled in decades-long territorial disputes with China and Taiwan. Asean and China have been negotiating a non-aggression accord that seeks to prevent disputes from escalating, but the negotiations have been delayed for years.
The contested waters have become a flashpoint in the competition between China and the United States. Washington has challenged Beijing's expansive territorial claims and routinely conducts what it terms freedom of navigation and overflight patrols, which have infuriated China.
Other Western and European nations have conducted sporadic surveillance in the busy waterway, through which the majority of the world's trade passes, with similar demands for unimpeded commerce and mobility.
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