A new study reveals that a main driver of the Atlantic Ocean may drastically slow down and then cease to exist in the coming decades.
The Gulf Stream is part of the circulation known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).
Gulf Stream Could Collapse From 2025
The AMOC, which is part of a "global conveyor belt" that transports water around the globe, serves to regulate everything from the rate of sea level rise on the East Coast to the average temperatures in Europe.
The premise of the 2004 disaster film "The Day After Tomorrow" revolved around an abrupt shutdown of this ocean current, which a new study indicates could occur between 2025 and 2095. The research, which was published on Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications, employs statistical techniques to identify early warning signs of an AMOC collapse, such as a slowing current and increasing variability.
The findings also suggest that the collapse may occur sooner than previously believed, possibly within the lifetimes of many individuals, as per Axios. A breakdown would likely be irreversible and would signify a significant "tipping point" - a critical threshold in the Earth's climate system that, when crossed, will usher in drastic changes.
According to climate models, a sudden halt in global warming could result in extreme chilling across a portion of the Northern Hemisphere. The disruption of global rainfall patterns and the intensification of significant floods and cyclones would increase sea level rise in the North Atlantic basin, among other consequences.
Scientists believe that a collapse would have enormous socioeconomic consequences for tens of millions of people, severely impacting coastal communities, agriculture, salmon populations, and marine ecosystems. The study observes that detailed observations of this circulation pattern using modern instruments are relatively limited. Using sea surface temperatures to illuminate trends, the scientists extended historical records further back in time.
The majority of Africa, the Caribbean, and South American nations, including Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia, would experience soaring temperatures. According to scientists at the University of Copenhagen, if current greenhouse gas emissions continue, this scenario is '95 percent certain' to occur by the end of this century.
Per Daily Mail, the experts added that without significant action to combat climate change, the collapse is more likely to occur in 2057, although there is a possibility it could occur in two years.
The ocean currents play a crucial role in the Earth's current climate because they redistribute heat, cold, and precipitation between the tropics and the Arctic. To reach their conclusion, the researchers utilized ocean temperature data from the past 150 years and innovative new statistical tools.
However, it contradicts the most recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations, which cited climate model simulations indicating that such a change to the AMOC in this century was extremely implausible.
Gulf Stream Collapse's Impact
The prediction of the Danish researchers is based on the observation of early warning signals that ocean currents exhibit when they become unstable. Although these have been reported in the past, the development of sophisticated statistical methods has made it possible to predict precisely when a collapse will occur, according to experts.
From 1870 to the present, the researchers analyzed sea surface temperatures in a specific region of the North Atlantic. These 'fingerprints' indicate the intensity of the AMOC or Thermohaline Circulation, which has only been accurately measured for the past 15 years.
Professor Susanne Ditlevsen of the University of Copenhagen explained, "Using new and enhanced statistical methods, we have made calculations that provide a more accurate estimate of when a collapse of the Thermohaline Circulation is most likely to occur, something we were unable to do before."
Prior to the 18th century, the AMOC was relatively stable. After the conclusion of the so-called 'Little Ice Age' in 1850, the current decreased.
As a result, the River Thames completely iced over, allowing Londoners to traverse it on foot. It is believed that the last entire shutdown of the AMOC occurred at the close of the last genuine Ice Age, approximately 12,000 years ago, when temperatures in western Europe plummeted by as much as 10°C. The latest findings have been published in Nature Communications.
