Future climate change will not reduce the current winter mortality rates and will continue to result in the same number of deaths, a new study found.
Reduction in winter mortality rates in the U.K. was one good, health experts hoped would come from global warming. But it seems like their hopes will be shattered. According to the findings of a new study by researchers at the University of Exeter and University College London, future climate change is very unlikely to reduce winter mortality rates in the country.
Findings were made after researchers analyzed data from the past 60 years to look into the factors that influence winter mortality and how these rates have changed over time. They found that between 1951 and 1971, winter death rates were directly influenced by the number of extremely cold days. Then, between 1971 and 1991, winter mortality rates were affected by both cold days and flu activities around that time. However, between 1991 and 2011, these rates were influenced more by flu activities than the number of cold days.
"We've shown that the number of cold days in a winter no longer explains its number of excess deaths. Instead, the main cause of year to year variation in winter mortality in recent decades has been flu," lead researcher Dr Philip Staddon, said in a press statement.
One of the reasons behind this change in factors influencing winter mortality is that people now have access to advanced technologies that help keep them warm. They are also more educated and informed about ways to fight the bitter winters.
There's every possibility that the warmer winters the U.K. may experience in the future may increase winter mortality rates, the researchers said. Explaining their statement further, the researchers noted that the more number of less predictable periods of extreme cold may leave people unprepared for the more volatile climate conditions.
"Both policy makers and health professionals have, for some time, assumed that a potential benefit from climate change will be a reduction in deaths seen over winter. We've shown that this is unlikely to be the case. Efforts to combat winter mortality due to cold spells should not be lessened, and those against flu and flu-like illnesses should also be maintained," Dr Staddon said.
Staddon's findings are, however, contradictory to a 2012 Climate Change Risk Assessment by the British Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) that said global warming would bring "some potential benefits, for example, a projected reduction in winter mortality." However, an updated climate assessment is due in 2017 which may stand in favor of Staddon's findings.
Currently, most governments are focused more on protecting individuals during hot weather conditions rather than the cold winter weather. They are of the opinion that heat waves are more life threatening than the winter cold.
"Heatwave deaths will increase a lot but there will still be more winter deaths," Staddon said, according to The Globe and Mail. "In 2003, the worst European heat wave in centuries killed up to 70,000 people, including about 3,000 in Britain."
Findings of the new study were published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
