There is a reported rise in tensions between Niger's military junta and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which ordered the deployment of troops to restore democracy in Niamey.
It was earlier reported the West African bloc announced it had directed a "standby force" to restore constitutional order after the August 6 deadline to reinstate ousted president Mohamed Bazoum expired.
Hours earlier, two Western officials told the Associated Press, on the condition of anonymity, of the junta telling US Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland of its threat to kill Bazoum if ECOWAS's military intervention pushed through.
It is unclear when or where the ECOWAS force would be deployed and which countries from the 15-member bloc would contribute to it, but defense and conflict experts say a majority of its strength would likely come from Nigeria, which they predicted would be able to field 5,000 troops in a matter of weeks, Time reported.
ECOWAS Nations Promise to Chip In Troops
While Nigeria would deploy the most military personnel, neighboring Ivory Coast president Alassane Ouattara said his country would take part in the military operation, along with Benin.
"Ivory Coast will provide a battalion and has made all the financial arrangements..." Ouattara said on state television. "We are determined to install Bazoum in his position. Our objective is peace and stability in the sub-region."
The junta responsible for spearheading the coup, led by Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, has exploited anti-French sentiment among the population to shore up its support.
After the Thursday summit, France's foreign ministry said it supported "all conclusions adopted."
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said his country appreciated "the determination of ECOWAS to explore all options for the peaceful resolution of the crisis," further stating the US would hold the junta accountable for the safety and security of Bazoum. However, he did not specify whether the US supported the deployment of troops to resolve the crisis.
Concerns for Bazoum's Health, Life Mounting
As reports of threats for Bazoum's life were revealed, several groups and experts think any harm done to the ousted civilian leader and any action done to save or avenge him would usher in a time of hardship in the Sahel and West African region.
Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch said Friday (August 11) it had spoken to Bazoum, revealing that his 20-year-old son was sick with a serious heart condition and had been refused access to a doctor. He also told the watchdog he did not have any electricity for nearly 10 days now and was not allowed to see his family or friends, nor was he allowed to receive supplies into the house.
University of Cincinnati assistant professor of political science Alexander Thurston said there have been unwritten rules on how overthrown presidents would be treated, and violence against Bazoum would evoke some of the worst coups of the past.
"The threat to kill Bazoum is grim," he added.
On the other hand, Africa Center for Strategic Studies associate processor Nate Allen added that Niger has a fairly large and well-trained army that, if actively resisted an invasion, could pose significant problems for ECOWAS.
"An ECOWAS invasion to restore constitutional order into a country of Niger's size and population would be unprecedented," he said.
Helping Nigeriens Caught in the Potential Crossfire
Another factor to consider in intervening in Niger's political affairs was how to assist more than 4 million Nigeriens who rely on humanitarian assistance as the situation in the country becomes more dire day by day as land and air borders made it hard to bring aid into the country.
"The situation is alarming..." United Nations Resident Coordinator in Niger Louise Aubin said. "We'll see an exponential rise and more people needing more humanitarian assistance."
Aside from the Nigerien junta's border closures, aid groups are also trying to work around ECOWAS sanctions as a result of the coup in Niamey.
Flights are cleared on a case-by-case basis and there was irregular access to fuel, which disrupted aid operations, Aubin added.
The UN has asked ECOWAS to make exceptions to the sanctions and is speaking to Niger's foreign ministry about doing the same within the country.
