Ukraine reportedly used M39 missiles supplied by the United States to target two Russian helicopter bases and successfully destroyed 21 aircraft in a single operation.
Kyiv claimed that its Oct. 17 attack, which allegedly saw three of the M39 missiles strike airfields located outside Berdyansk in southern Ukraine as well as in Luhansk Oblast in the east, destroyed nine Russian helicopters.
Ukraine's M39 Missiles
But the M39 missile raid actually destroyed 21 helicopters as revealed by an analysis of commercial satellite imagery by GeoConfirmed, an open-source intelligence practitioner on X, formerly known as Twitter. The group said that this was probably the biggest blow to Moscow's air force since the beginning of the invasion.
Ukrainian analysis team Frontelligence Insight conducted a second analysis that aligned with GeoConfirmed's initial assessment. It said that while the number slightly exceeded the team's public estimate, it was important to note that their estimate was based on solid grounds, as per Forbes.
In order to confirm a destroyed or significantly damaged helicopter, the analysts looked for satellite imagery that depicted scorch marks around the known recent location of a parked aircraft. They then cross-referenced the overhead imagery with images and videos from Russian social media while looking for evidence of Russians hauling away, from either airfield, damaged and unflyable helicopters.
However, some observers have questioned the analysts' tallies and Frontelligence Insight said that the challenge arises from the limitations of commercially available imagery. It said that these do not provide the resolution needed to detect hundreds of small scorch marks around helicopters in Berdyansk.
GeoConfirmed also stressed that its estimate, while surprisingly high, was consistent with the destructive power of the M39 missile. The munition, the M39 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), is a two-ton, 13-foot ballistic missile that has a solid rocket motor and a warhead that contains 950 Msubmunitions.
Destruction of Russian Helicopters
The loss of the helicopters would be particularly damaging for the Russian side given that its defensive lines have become increasingly reliant on rotary wing air support. Officials from the UK also said that if confirmed, the losses would most likely have an impact on Russia's ability to both defend and conduct future offensive activity in the two locations, according to The Hill.
On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky posted a video where he called the Russian losses "really impressive" and "exactly the kind of losses of the occupier that Ukraine needs." The M39 missiles are seen as potential game changers in the Russia-Ukraine war.
These weapons are capable of hitting targets that were previously considered out of reach for the Ukrainian military. Some versions of the weapon system can also strike locations that are more than 100 miles away.
On the other hand, the Russian-appointed governor of the occupied part of Zaporizhzhia region, Vladimir Rogov, said that air defense systems intercepted enemy rockets over Berdyansk. He added that information regarding casualties and damage was being assessed and would be provided at a later date.
There was also an unverified video posted on a pro-Russian social media account that was said to have been filmed in the region. The footage appeared to show explosions and flying rockets as a voice explained that an ammunition dump had been hit, said BBC.
