A recent survey says a majority of experts from the United States and Taiwan believe that China does not have the necessary capabilities to successfully launch an amphibious invasion of Taiwan. However, they do acknowledge that China is in a favorable position to carry out a blockade.
A survey was conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies' (CSIS) China Power Project and Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research. It involved polling 52 experts from the United States and 35 experts from Taiwan.
Only a minority of experts in the United States and Taiwan believe that China possesses the necessary military capability to successfully carry out an amphibious invasion of Taiwan in the next five years.
According to a report from CSIS, it is argued that conducting an amphibious invasion would necessitate a greater deployment of military forces compared to a quarantine or blockade. Additionally, the operations involved would be considerably more intricate.
The escalating tensions between China and Taiwan have raised concerns about the potential for a military conflict between the United States and China, making the region a volatile and precarious situation.
Experts from both countries generally concur that China possesses the capability to implement a quarantine or blockade within the next five years, as per Axios.
A majority of experts in the United States and Taiwan have expressed the belief that China can implement a quarantine. This quarantine would be focused on commercial activities rather than military operations, and would be carried out by China's coast guard or other law enforcement vessels.
A majority of experts in the United States and Taiwan have expressed concerns about the possibility of China implementing a blockade. This blockade would encompass both commercial and military activities, with direct involvement from China's military.
Taiwanese experts generally held a less concerning view of China compared to US experts, consistently rating China as having lesser capabilities than the US respondents.
According to a majority of experts, there is growing concern about a potential crisis in the Taiwan Strait in 2024. The experts believe that a Chinese blockade or "quarantine" of the island is the most likely scenario.
The survey highlights the difference between a "quarantine" and a "blockade." Based on the report, implementing a quarantine on Taiwan, which involves restricting commercial routes by nonmilitary actors from China, would indicate a strategy to pressure the Taiwanese government rather than overthrow it.
It is speculated that a military blockade by the PLA could indicate a strong desire for immediate unification within the next five years. Experts claim that a crisis can be described as a situation where there is a notable escalation in cross-strait tensions, often accompanied by large-scale military exercises by the PLA with the intention of pressuring Taiwan, along with renewed Chinese threats of using force against the island.
Kristen Gunness, a senior policy researcher at the RAND corporation and a speaker on a CSIS panel Monday morning, discussed the appeal of a quarantine/blockade approach as a potentially more cost-effective and less risky method of exerting pressure on Taiwan. Gunness highlighted that this approach places the burden of escalation on the United States, Taiwan, and our allies, forcing them to devise appropriate responses.
Gunness emphasized the importance of US decisionmakers carefully considering their response to potential situations in the Indo-Pacific region, even if they do not involve a full-scale invasion. According to a majority of experts from the United States and Taiwan, a potential measure to address Beijing's attempt to punish or coerce Taiwan would be a quarantine of the outlying Taiwanese islands.
Experts are predicting a potential escalation in 2024 due to a combination of factors. Taiwan once again defied China's desires by electing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Lai Ching-te, who holds reservations about China's intentions towards the island. Many analysts anticipated that Beijing would alter its strategy in response to the election.
China has labeled Lai as "dangerously separatist" and portrayed the election he won as a decision between peace and war. Since his election, there has been a complete lack of communication between Lai and officials in Beijing.
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US Intervention in China-Taiwan Blockade
Chen Ming-Chi, CEO at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research said, China may feel inclined to test Lai due to his lack of military expertise. The speaker highlighted how statements about Taiwanese statehood from Lai's party challenge Beijing's commitment to "inevitable reunification."
According to the majority of experts surveyed, the likelihood of US intervention decreases as the severity of Chinese action lessens. Gunness suggested that Beijing might see a quarantine as a chance for the U.S. to ease tensions or for Taiwan to surrender without the need for military action from either side.
As per the report, experts expressed less confidence in the possibility of US intervention in the event of a quarantine, particularly Taiwanese experts. There was a growing belief that the United States might take military action if China were to invade Taiwan.
According to Lee Hsi-min, a former admiral in the Republic of China armed forces and senior fellow at the 2049 Project, China sees quarantine as a means to restrict Taiwan from taking actions that China deems unacceptable. He added that Taiwan cannot be compelled to do things it wants through quarantine measures.
Hsi-min suggested that a blockade is a more probable course of action instead of a quarantine. He also mentioned that China is open to employing "extensive bombardment" as a means to exert pressure. Moreover, Ivan Kanapathy, the Freeman Chair in China Studies at CSIS, suggests that the ongoing conflicts between Israel and Hamas, as well as Russia and Ukraine, may have an impact on how the United States approaches Taiwan.
These conflicts could potentially discourage further conflict. Kanapathy expressed surprise at experts' anticipation of an impending crisis, noting the cautious approach of Washington and Beijing in avoiding actions that could escalate tensions on the global stage.
According to the CSIS report, Taiwan's capacity to withstand a quarantine or blockade is estimated to be between one and three months, even without significant intervention from the US.
Per The Hill, US lawmakers are expressing concerns about the expenses associated with America's assistance to Ukraine and Israel. President Biden's request for additional foreign spending is facing obstacles as Republicans push for a focus on immigration along the country's southern border.
